医学新知2025，Vol.35Issue(11)：1272-1278,7.DOI:10.12173/j.issn.1004-5511.202412034
基于ARIMA模型的临床红细胞需求预测研究
Prediction and analysis of red blood cells clinical demand based on the ARIMA model
摘要
Abstract
Objective To construct an ARIMA multiplicative seasonal model suitable for predicting the clinical demand of red blood cells in Wuhu City,and provide a scientific basis for blood collection organizations to formulate red blood cell collection and supply balance programs and recruitment plans.Methods The ARIMA model was constructed based on the clinical use of red blood cells in Wuhu City Central Blood Station from January 2012 to December 2021.The data were processed through time series stabilization,model identification,and parameter verification to determine the optimal model.The red blood cell clinical use demand from January 2022 to August 2022 was predicted using the optimal model,and the prediction effect was verified using actual values.Results The optimal model was ARIMA(0,1,0)(1,1,0)12,with BIC=12.162.The ACF and PACF of the residual sequence were basically within the 95%confidence interval,and the Ljung-Box Q value was 15.265,with P=0.576>0.05,which met the requirements of white noise sequence,and the model fitting was validated.Except for April and May,the actual values of each month were within the 95%confidence interval of the predicted value,and the average relative error between the ARIMA model prediction value and the actual value was-0.00375,and the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)was 7.087%,with good prediction effect.Conclusion The ARIMA(0,1,0)(1,1,0)12 model can be used to predict the clinical demand of red blood cells,and it can provide a reference for blood collection,non-remunerated blood donation recruitment and inventory management.关键词
红细胞/ARIMA乘积季节模型/需求预测/卫生管理Key words
Red blood cell/ARIMA multiplicative seasonal model/Demand forecasting/Health management分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
杨旭,刘舒琦,黄慧,陈秀兰,楼依玲,曹世义,蒋青青..基于ARIMA模型的临床红细胞需求预测研究[J].医学新知,2025,35(11):1272-1278,7.基金项目
芜湖市科技计划项目(2024kj102) （2024kj102）
芜湖市卫生健康委科研项目(WHWJ2021y108) （WHWJ2021y108）
