医学新知2025，Vol.35Issue(11)：1310-1316,7.DOI:10.12173/j.issn.1004-5511.202411053
结直肠癌肝转移患者预后模型的建立与验证:基于SEER数据库
Establishment and validation of a prognostic survival prediction model for colorectal cancer patients with liver metastasis:based on SEER database
摘要
Abstract
Objective To explore the relevant factors affecting patients with liver metastasis of colorectal cancer,and to establish a nomogram prediction model to provide evidence for individualized diagnosis and treatment.Methods To retrospectively analyze the case information of colorectal cancer liver metastasis patients in the SEER database from January 2010 to December 2019.Lasso regression and Cox regression model were used to analyze independent risk factors affecting patient prognosis and establish the prediction nomogram model.The discrimination and consistency of the model were evaluated based on the receiver operating characteristic curve and its area under the curve(AUC),calibration curve and decision curve analysis(DCA).Results A total of 5,121 patients with colorectal cancer liver metastases were included,comprising 3,631 cases in the modelling group and 1,490 cases in the validation group.Undifferentiated tumour grade[HR=4.29,95%CI(2.74,6.71)],positive neural infiltration tumour[HR=1.32,95%CI(1.16,1.49)],lymph node ratio(LNR)>0.6[HR=1.70,95%CI(1.28,2.28)]were risk factors for patients with colorectal cancer liver metastases.Age>60 years old[HR=0.85,95%CI(0.75,0.95)]and surgery for metastatic lesions[HR=0.85,95%CI(0.75,0.96)]were protective factors for the prognosis of colorectal cancer patients with liver metastasis.A survival prediction model was established by nomogram.The AUC values for the modeling group and validation group were 0.722 and 0.732,respectively.The calibration curve approximates the ideal curve,and the DCA curve demonstrates that the model possesses good clinical validity.Conclusion This study is based on the SEER database to construct a survival prediction nomogram model,which has high discrimination,consistency,and clinical effectiveness,demonstrating the practicality of the prediction model in clinical practice.关键词
结直肠癌/肝转移/生存分析/预后/列线图模型Key words
Colorectal cancer/Liver metastasis/Survival analysis/Prognosis/Nomogram model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
陈晨,穆聪慧,袁帅..结直肠癌肝转移患者预后模型的建立与验证:基于SEER数据库[J].医学新知,2025,35(11):1310-1316,7.基金项目
中国医疗政策对临床决策及患者获得感调研项目(20230613) （20230613）
