中国现代医生2025，Vol.63Issue(32)：37-40,4.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-9701.2025.32.009
经阴道宫颈环扎术后早产风险预测模型构建
Construction of a risk prediction model for premature delivery after transvaginal cervical cerclage
黄冉 1李鹤 1赵晓阳 1邓小林 1李红1
作者信息
- 1. 郑州大学第三附属医院产科,河南郑州 450052
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Objective To explore the risk factors for premature delivery after transvaginal cervical cerclage,construct and validate a predictive model.Methods A total of 209 single-tonsus cervicitis patients who underwent McDonald cervical ring ligation at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2022 to December 2024 were selected as subjects,and they were divided into preterm group(n=86)and full-term group(n=123)according to the postoperative pregnancy outcomes.LASSO regression analysis was used to screen variables,and the prediction model was constructed by multivariate Logistic regression.The performance of the model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve,calibration curve and decision curve.Results Body mass index,amniotic sac protrusion,preoperative white blood cell,and cervical length before cerclage＜25mm were identified as independent risk factors for preterm birth(P＜0.05).The prediction model demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.823(95％CI:0.765-0.881),with sensitivity of 77.91％and specificity of 77.24％.Both the calibration curve and decision analysis confirmed the model's strong consistency and clinical net benefit.Conclusion The predictive model constructed in this study has a good predictive effect and can be used as a reference for the stratification of preterm risk after cervical cerclage.关键词
宫颈环扎术/早产/回归分析/预测模型Key words
Cervical cerclage/Premature delivery/Regression analysis/Predictive model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
黄冉,李鹤,赵晓阳,邓小林,李红..经阴道宫颈环扎术后早产风险预测模型构建[J].中国现代医生,2025,63(32):37-40,4.
