电力建设2025，Vol.46Issue(12)：82-95,14.DOI:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2025.12.008
多类型极端天气场景下配电网的脆弱点与易感点识别
Identification of Vulnerable and Susceptible Points in Distribution Networks Under Multiple Types of Extreme Weather Scenarios
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]In view of the impact of various extreme weather events on complex urban distribution networks,we propose an assessment method to identify vulnerable and susceptible points in distribution networks,especially electrical transformers with distribution functions that incur high outage losses.[Methods]First,we introduce a unified and parameterized integrated model of vulnerability.By employing kernel functions,cumulative transformations,and parameterized mappings to construct a unified framework,the model achieves a synergy between mechanism-and data-driven approaches,which makes it adaptable to diverse modeling scenarios.Second,the method fully considers the influence of land-use types on the operational environment and disaster risk of transformer equipment.We developed a vulnerability index system based on land-use categories by refining the vulnerability assessment from a spatial perspective.Additionally,we also propose a scenario probability sampling and reduction approach;by utilizing Monte Carlo sampling and sample-average approximation techniques,the failure probabilities computed by the model are converted into a set of failure scenarios to improve the efficiency and accuracy of failure scenario analysis.Finally,a simulation analysis was conducted on a 10 kV distribution network in a certain area of Beijing.[Results]The results demonstrate that the proposed model and method were able to identify vulnerabilities and susceptible points in the distribution network under various extreme weather conditions.Moreover,by deploying emergency power supply vehicles at susceptible points and positioning emergency repair resources at vulnerability points,indicators such as load loss and the number of affected users can be significantly improved.[Conclusions]The experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in guiding power grid planning,construction,operation,and maintenance.关键词
多类型极端天气/脆弱点/易感点/配电网易损性评估/蒙特卡罗模拟Key words
multiple extreme weather events/vulnerability points/susceptible points/distribution network vulnerability assessment/Monte Carlo simulation分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
MA Rui,WANG Weihao,PENG Zepu,YANG Yuchao,SHI Qingxin,WANG Zhiqiang..多类型极端天气场景下配电网的脆弱点与易感点识别[J].电力建设,2025,46(12):82-95,14.基金项目
This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52307094). 国家自然科学基金项目(52307094) （No.52307094）
