高技术通讯2025，Vol.35Issue(11)：1250-1262,13.DOI:10.3772/j.issn.1002-0470.2025.11.009
一种考虑多峰分布的反向不确定性传播方法
An inverse uncertainty propagation method considering multi-peak distributions
摘要
Abstract
Traditional methods of uncertainty propagation analysis still follow a single random distribution when solving multi-peak distribution problems,leading to poor results.The aim of this study is to propose a practical approach to ensure more accurate execution of inverse uncertainty quantification in a scarce data environment with multi-peak random distribution.First,the multi-peak probability density function(PDF)of the input random variable is con-structed based on prior knowledge and Gaussian mixture model(GMM).Second,the values of the statistical pa-rameters of the input variables are estimated based on the kernel density estimation(KDE)with the principle of maximum information entropy under the finite sample condition of the output data.Finally,the calibration valida-tion of the parameters is carried out through the sensitivity matrix and confidence intervals(CI)to ensure the relia-bility of the statistical parameter results.The feasibility and validity of the method are verified by arithmetic exam-ples.关键词
反向不确定性传播分析/多峰分布/灵敏度矩阵/置信区间/概率密度函数Key words
inverse uncertainty propagation analysis/multi-peaked distribution/sensitivity matrix/confi-dence interval/probability density function引用本文复制引用
ZHENG Yao,HAN Yang,YANG Yong,PENG Xiang..一种考虑多峰分布的反向不确定性传播方法[J].高技术通讯,2025,35(11):1250-1262,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(51875525)和浙江省自然科学基金(LY21E050008,LHZ22F020001)资助项目. （51875525）
