中国当代医药2025，Vol.32Issue(33)：9-13,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-4721.2025.33.02
列线图模型预测学龄前儿童急性上呼吸道合胞病毒感染重症风险及相应因素分析
Nomogram model to predict the risk of acute upper respiratory syncytial virus infection in preschool children and analysis of related factors
摘要
Abstract
Objective To construct a Nomogram model to predict the risk of acute upper respiratory syncytial virus infection in preschool children and countermeasures.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 200 preschool children with acute upper respiratory syncytial virus infection admitted to Maternity & Child Care Center of Xinyu and Ganzhou Women and Children's Health Care Hospital from October 2021 to October 2023,they were divided into two groups according to the severity of symptoms,with 150 cases in the mild group and 50 cases in the moderate to severe group.Univariate analysis was used to statistically analyze the clinical data of the two groups of children.Factors with statistically significant differences in the univariate analysis were included in the multivariate logistic regression analysis,and ROC analysis was performed on the continuous variables among the influencing factors.The model was constructed using R language,and the Nomogram model was analyzed and evaluated by using calibration curves and decision curves.Results The results of univariate analysis showed that the length of hospital stay,whether exposure to smoking environment,whether full-term delivery was given,individual atopic constitution,combined underlying diseases,interleukin-4(IL-4),and interleukin-6(IL-6)levels were related to the severity of symptoms of acute upper respiratory syncytial virus infection in preschool children,and the differences were statistically sig-nificant(P＜0.05).The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the length of hospital stay(β=0.558,OR=1.748,95％CI:1.114-2.743)and exposure to smoking environment(β=2.297,OR=9.943,95％CI:2.356-41.97),non full-term delivery(β=2.808,OR=16.575,95％CI:3.145-87.368),individual atopic constitution(β=3.606,OR=36.834,95％CI:4.055-334.604),IL-4(β=0.367,OR=1.443,95％CI:1.227-1.698),IL-6(β=0.39,OR=1.478,95％CI:1.227-1.779)were independent risk factors for the severity of symptoms of acute upper respiratory syncytial virus infection in preschool children(P＜0.05).Receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)analysis showed that the areas under the curve(AUC)of the length of hospital stay,IL-4 level,and IL-6 level were 0.632,0.850,and 0.828,respectively,which had certain predictive value.The influencing factors were incorporated into the prediction model as predictors,and its C-index was 0.973(0.953-0.993),suggesting that this model performed well in predicting the severity of symptoms of acute upper respiratory syncytial virus infection in preschool children.The calibration curve showed that there was good consistency between the observed and predicted levels of its data,and the decision curve analysis(DCA)results indicated that when its risk threshold is greater than 0.14,this model can provide a relatively good standardized net benefit.Conclusion The length of hospital stay,exposure to smoking environment,non full-term delivery,individual atopic constitution,IL-4,and IL-6 are independent risk factors for the severity of symptoms of acute upper respiratory syncytial virus infection in preschool children.The constructed predictive model has a good predictive ability and certain diagnostic value.关键词
合胞病毒/急性上呼吸道感染/列线图模型/学龄前儿童Key words
Syncytial virus/Acute upper respiratory tract infection/Nomogram model/Preschool children分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
AO Xiaodong,ZHOU Yine,LIU Jing,CHENG Shiying,LU Chun..列线图模型预测学龄前儿童急性上呼吸道合胞病毒感染重症风险及相应因素分析[J].中国当代医药,2025,32(33):9-13,5.基金项目
江西省卫生健康委科技计划项目(202511110). （202511110）
