南京师大学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.48Issue(6)：79-89,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-4616.2025.06.009
人类活动和气候变化对中国原麝(Moschus moschiferus)适宜分布的影响研究
Impact of Human Activities and Climate Change on the Suitable Distribution of Siberian Musk Deer(Moschus moschiferus)in China
摘要
Abstract
Human activities and climate change critically influence species survival and distribution.Understanding the spatial patterns of suitable habitats and accurately assessing habitat suitability are fundamental for effective species conservation.The Siberian Musk Deer(Moschus moschiferus),heavily hunted for medicinal use and further threatened by intensified human activities and climate change,faces severe survival risks.This study integrated the latest human activity and climate data with 189 Musk Deer occurrence records using the MaxEnt species distribution model to evaluate threat factors,identify suitable habitats,and project future distribution trends.Key findings include:(1)Protected area coverage(PA),and GDP showed the highest relative contributions,with relative contributions of 53.8%and 23.7%respectively.The negative effect of GDP indicates that Musk Deer prefer areas with low population density(PD)and minimal human disturbance.(2)Temperature seasonality(Bio4,29.0%),elevation(DEM,24.1%),and NDVI(19.2%)were predominant natural drivers,exhibiting bell-shaped relationships with Musk Deer distribution.The suitability of habitats for Musk Deer was positively correlated with vegetation cover.Optimal suitability occurred at NDVI>0.6,elevation near 1,000 m,mean diurnal temperature range(Bio2)of 10-12℃,and temperature seasonality(Bio4)of 1 200-1 400.(3)Current high-suitability habitats(1.53×105 km2)are primarily distributed in Hebei,Heilongjiang,Jilin,Liaoning,Inner Mongolia,Shanxi,Shaanxi,and Xinjiang,with medium(2.65×105 km2)and low suitability areas(5.96×105 km2)spanning broader regions.(4)Future projections under climate change indicate habitat contraction with westward shifts.Under the low-emission scenario(SSP1-2.6),high-suitability areas contracted(4.58×104 km2 by 2030s,6.18×104 km2 by 2050s,7.26×104 km2 by 2070s)but expanded toward higher latitudes.The high-emission scenario(SSP5-8.5)caused severe reductions in high-suitability habitats,with losses of 4.41×104 km2(2030s),12.38×104 km2(2050s),and 13.38×104 km2(2070s),particularly in Northeast China.Given that vegetation cover,protected area extent,temperature,and precipitation remain key factors affecting the current and future suitable distribution of Musk Deer,this study deems ongoing efforts in forest conservation and national park development,along with promoting energy-saved and emission-reduction,as crucial for Musk Deer protection.关键词
原麝/MaxEnt模型/人类活动/气候变化/物种分布Key words
Moschus moschiferus/MaxEnt/human activities/climate change/species distribution分类
生物科学引用本文复制引用
Cui Anbang,Xu Du,Wang Chongyang,Fei Yulu,Zhang Tianyu,Li Wenbo..人类活动和气候变化对中国原麝(Moschus moschiferus)适宜分布的影响研究[J].南京师大学报（自然科学版）,2025,48(6):79-89,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(32201263). （32201263）
