农业现代化研究2025，Vol.46Issue(5)：854-863,10.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2025.0370
湖南省县域水稻生产力时空分异特征与影响因素
Spatiotemporal variations and the influencing factors of rice productivity at the county level in Hunan Province
摘要
Abstract
Hunan Province is a major double-cropping rice production area in China.Clarifying the spatiotemporal variation and dominant factors of rice productivity is essential for scientifically delineating suitable rice-growing zones and ensuring national food security.Based on statistical yearbook data from 2013 to 2021,this study considered four categories of factors including climate,topography,soil,and socioeconomic conditions.A random forest model was used to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of county-level rice productivity in Hunan Province.The results show that:1)During the study period,the average productivity of double-cropping early rice,single-season rice,and double-cropping late rice was(5.85 ± 0.54),(7.15 ± 0.81),and(6.32 ± 0.68)t/hm2,respectively.Significant spatial autocorrelation was observed,with high-yield areas mainly distributed in the central and eastern plains of the province.2)Among 122 counties,the average Sen's slope of productivity change for early rice,single-season rice,and late rice was 0.024,0.091,and-0.004 t/(hm²·a),respectively.The number of counties with a significant increasing trend was 21,74,and 14,while those with a significant decreasing trend was 10,1,and 16,respectively.3)Soil and topography were the primary factors influencing spatial variation in rice productivity.The most important variables were soil bulk density for early rice(15.3%),slope for single-season rice(14.5%),and elevation for late rice(18.5%).(4)The response of rice productivity to different factors showed clear nonlinear patterns.Some variables had threshold effects,with productivity increasing up to a certain point,followed by a decline beyond that point.This study deepens the understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns and driving factors of regional rice productivity and provides scientific support for optimizing rice cultivation planning and management in Hunan Province.关键词
水稻生产力/时空分异/影响因素/社会经济/气候变化/非线性影响Key words
rice productivity/spatiotemporal variation/influencing factor/socioeconomic/climate change/nonlinear impact分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
ZI Haobo,RONG Feilong,QIN Ziquan,DENG Shuqin,ZHU Yuying,YU De,LI Xiaoma,CHEN Falin..湖南省县域水稻生产力时空分异特征与影响因素[J].农业现代化研究,2025,46(5):854-863,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(42301301).Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42301301). （42301301）
