农业现代化研究2025，Vol.46Issue(5)：864-876,13.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2025.0267
1990-2020年新疆棉花生产格局动态及影响因素分析
Dynamic patterns and influencing factors of cotton production in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020
摘要
Abstract
Ensuring grain and cotton security is a strategic priority in building a strong agricultural nation in the new era.As a major cotton production base,Xinjiang plays a pivotal role in safeguarding national cotton supply.Understanding the spatiotemporal evolution and driving forces of cotton production patterns is essential for optimizing cropping structures,improving resource allocation efficiency,enhancing industrial competitiveness,and reinforcing the foundation of national grain and cotton security.Based on panel data from 81 counties or districts in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020,this study employs a gravity center model,yield contribution decomposition,and a linear mixed-effects model to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of cotton production.The results reveal a continued concentration of cotton production in the main areas along the northern and southern slopes of the Tianshan The production center shifted northward toward the mountains,exhibiting a"slope-climbing"and"water-following"migration pattern.In most counties or districts,production growth has been primarily driven by the expansion of sown area,while only a few regions have achieved growth through yield improvement.Further quantitative analysis shows that climate-induced changes in hydrothermal conditions passively influence cotton production patterns through spatial adaptation.In contrast,factors such as grain-cotton competition,agricultural input intensity,target price policies,and improved seed subsidies actively shape the cropping structure and serve as key drivers of spatial changes in cotton production.关键词
棉花/生产格局/时空动态/贡献因子/种植结构Key words
cotton/production patterns/spatio-temporal dynamics/contributors/planting structure分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
MA Jiaqi,ZHU Xinyi,GAO Jinlong,CHEN Cheng,LIU Weichen,CAO Hui,CHEN Jianglong..1990-2020年新疆棉花生产格局动态及影响因素分析[J].农业现代化研究,2025,46(5):864-876,13.基金项目
第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2023xjkk0102),国家自然科学基金项目(42422104,42371205,42171211),中国科学院青年创新促进会项目(2022317).Supported by the Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition Project(2023xjkk0102) （2023xjkk0102）
National Natural Science Foundation of China(42422104,42371205,42171211) （42422104,42371205,42171211）
Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(2022317). （2022317）
