Wang Siwen 1Wang Wanying2
作者信息
- 1. Institute of Cancer Prevention and Treatment,Harbin Medical University,Harbin 150081,Heilongjiang,China
- 2. Heilongjiang Provincial Cancer Center,Harbin Medical University Cancer Hospital,Harbin 150081,Heilongjiang,China
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Objective:This study aims to analyze the trends in esophageal cancer incidence and mortality in China from 1990 to 2021,examine the influence of age-period-cohort effects on these epidemiological trends,and predict future preva-lence thereby providing a data-driven foundation for enhancing early diagnosis and treatment.Methods:This study utilized data from the GBD 2021 database,extracting Chinese esophageal cancer incidence and mortality rates between 1990 and 2021.An age-period-cohort model was employed to analyze the effects of age,period,and cohort.Future trends were projec-ted using the Nordpred model.Results:In 2021,the incidence and mortality rates of esophageal cancer in China were 22.55 and 20.85 per 100,000,respectively,with age-standardized rates of 15.04 and 14.13 per 100,000.From 1990 to 2021,the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of esophageal cancer decreased at an average annual percentage change of-1.60%and-1.96%,respectively(P<0.001).The decline was more pronounced in women than in men.The incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer increased with age and were significantly higher in males than in females.The period and cohort effects demonstrated a downward trend in both the inci-dence and mortality of esophageal cancer over later periods and in more recent birth cohorts.Conclusion:Despite the recent decline in esophageal cancer incidence and mortality in China,the elevated risk among males calls for intensified health in-terventions,early screening,and robust public health policies to further alleviate the disease burden.关键词
食管癌/发病率/死亡率/中国/年龄-时期-队列模型Key words
Esophageal cancer/Incidence rate/Mortality/China/Age-period-cohort model分类
医药卫生
