水利水电技术（中英文）2025，Vol.56Issue(11)：21-31,11.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.11.002
鄱阳湖流域水旱灾害对气候变化的响应
Response of flood and drought disasters to climate change in Poyang Lake Basin
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Climate change will affect the frequency and intensity of floods and droughts.The impact of climate warming on the frequency and intensity of floods and droughts is empirically studied in the Poyang Lake Basin.[Methods]A flood and drought disaster intensity model is constructed,including the main disaster causing factors such as precipitation in the Poyang Lake Basin and the flow of the Yangtze River.This model is used to calculate the intensity of summer floods,spring and summer droughts in the Poyang Lake Basin from 1960 to 2022.By comparing the frequency and intensity of floods and droughts before and after climate change,the response of floods and droughts to climate change is obtained.[Results]After 1996,the climate has warmed in the Poyang Lake Basin,with precipitation and surface runoff decreasing by 1.9％～5.1％during the wet season and increasing by 1.1％～9.1％during the dry season.Climate warming will have a very limited impact on the frequency and intensity of summer floods and spring droughts,but will significantly increased the frequency and intensity of summer droughts,from 16％before warming to 28％after warming.[Conclusion]The solution result of the intensity model for flood and drought disasters in the Poyang Lake Basin are in line with the actual situation,and the time and intensity of flood and drought disasters are basically consistent with the recorded actual disaster situation.The model may have scientific value and the result are reliable.If statistical method well be used to determine the intensity classification of flood and drought disasters,it will promote the application and promotion of the model.关键词
气候变暖/水旱灾害/灾害强度模型/鄱阳湖流域/洪水/长江流域/降雨Key words
climate change/flood and drought disasters/disaster intensity model/Poyang Lake Basin/flood/Yangtze River Basin/rainfall分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
FU Jing,HU Zhenpeng,LI Guowen..鄱阳湖流域水旱灾害对气候变化的响应[J].水利水电技术（中英文）,2025,56(11):21-31,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41261053) （41261053）
江西省重点课题(202023ZKDT03) （202023ZKDT03）
