水利水电技术（中英文）2025，Vol.56Issue(11)：59-70,12.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.11.005
闽江流域极端降水时空演变特征及气候影响因子
Characteristics of spatio-temporal evolution of extreme precipitation and Climate influencing factors in Minjiang River Basin
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Global warming has accelerated the hydrological cycle in the regions,leading to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events.Minjiang River Basin is an important basin in the southeast coast of China,so it is of great significance to study the spatiotemporal evolution of extreme precipitation for the prevention and control of flood disasters in the Minjiang River Basin.[Methods]Based on the daily precipitation data of 29 meteorological stations in the Minjiang River Basin,9 extreme precipitation indices were selected.Applying the method of Mann-Kendall trend analysis,Sens's slope estimation and Morlet wavelet analysis,the spatiotemporal evolution and periodic characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Minjiang River Basin were analyzed,and the influence of atmospheric circulation factors on extreme precipitation was further discussed.[Results]The result showed that during the period from 1962 to 2021,the total annual precipitation(PRCPTOT),maximum 1-day precipitation(Rx1day),maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation(Rx5day),extreme heavy precipitation(R99p),and the number of days with rainfall above heavy rain(R25mm)exhibited an insignificant upward trend.The upward trends of extreme precipitation(R95p),daily precipitation intensity(SDII),and the number of days above storm(R50mm)reached a significant level(P＜0.05),with the growth rates reaching 20.48 mm/10 a,0.22 mm·d-1/10 a,and 0.28/10 a,respectively.The number of consecutive rainy days(CWD)showed an insignificant downward trend(-0.14 d/10 a).Indicators such as PRCPTOT,R25mm,and R50mm presented an increasing trend from the southeast coastal areas to the northwest mountainous areas.The low value areas of Rx1day,Rx5day,R95p,and R99p were mainly located in the central part of the basin,while the high value areas were concentrated in the northwest and southeast coastal areas.The high value areas of CWD were mainly distributed in the southwest of the basin.The SDII of all stations showed an upward trend,and 4 stations had a significant increase,mainly located in the northwest and southeast coastal areas of the basin.The extreme precipitation indices exhibited the periodic characteristics of two different time scales.The impacts of atmospheric circulation factors of EASMI,GMLOT,and Nino3.4 on extreme precipitation in the current year all reached a significant level(P＜0.01).[Conclusion]The result indicated that in the past 60 years,the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation in the Minjiang River Basin have exhibited an increasing trend,while the persistence of rainfall has decreased,and extreme precipitation has evolved from long-duration and low-intensity to short-duration and high-intensity.The high value areas of extreme precipitation are mainly located in the Wuyi Mountains in the northwest,the Jiuxian Mountain in the southern Daiyun Mountains,and the Changle city along the eastern coast.The extreme precipitation index has periodicities of two time scales,namely 6～8 years and 45～56 years.After 2000,the extreme precipitation in the basin oscillated more frequently at short period scales.The impacts of NAO,GMLOT,and Nino3.4 on extreme precipitation have a lag effect.The increase in global temperature is an important factor contributing to the increase of extreme precipitation and the decrease of continuous precipitation in the Minjiang River Basin.关键词
极端降水/时空演变/周期性特征/大气环流因子/闽江流域/气候变化/降雨/影响因素Key words
extreme precipitation/temporal and spatial variation/periodical characteristics/atmospheric circulation factor/Minjiang River Basin/climate change/rainfall/influencing factors分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
CUI Hongming,LIU Meibing,GAN Beibei,CHEN Xingwei,CHEN Ying,GAO Lu,DENG Haijun..闽江流域极端降水时空演变特征及气候影响因子[J].水利水电技术（中英文）,2025,56(11):59-70,12.基金项目
国家自然科学联合基金项目(U22A20554) （U22A20554）
福建省公益类科研院所专项(2024R1002003) （2024R1002003）
