水利水电技术（中英文）2025，Vol.56Issue(11)：115-126,12.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.11.009
基于系统动力学模型的泰安市水资源承载力"四水四定"分析
Analysis of"Basing Four Aspects on Water Resources"for water resources carrying capacity in Tai'an City based on system dynamics model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The"Basing Four Aspects on Water Resources"principle,as a concrete embodiment of the sixteen-character water governance concept,aims to investigate future trends in water resources carrying capacity in water-scarce regions and formulate targeted policies and plans for intervention and regulation.This is a key issue in contemporary planning and management of water resources.[Methods]A system dynamics model was established to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of water resources carrying capacity in Tai'an City.On this basis,the water resources carrying capacity model of"Basing Four Aspects on Water Resources"was introduced to analyze the carrying capacity of urban areas,land,population,and industry before and after the implementation of the Eastern Route Phase Ⅱ project of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.[Results]The result showed that by 2035,Tai'an's total population would exceed its capacity by 920 000 people,the urban built-up area would exceed its capacity by 7267hm2,the irrigated cultivated area would exceed its capacity by 628 000 mu,and the industrial added value would exceed its capacity by 41 900 hm2.[Conclusion]The result indicate thatfuture development will be primarily constrained by industrial growth.Since 2017,the water resources carrying capacity index of Tai'an City has shown a continuous worsening trend,facing the risk of water resource overload.The spatial differences in water resources carrying capacity across different districts and counties are significant.Although the implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion East Route Phase Ⅱ project can improve the water resources carrying capacity of Tai'an to some extent,it cannot fundamentally resolve the issue of water resource overload.Without considering water use priorities,the rapid growth of industrial water use in Tai'an may reduce water availability for other sectors,leading to varying degrees of overload in urban areas,land,population,and industry.These findings can provide a reference for developing future planning and management policies of water resources in Tai'an City.关键词
四水四定/水资源承载力/系统动力学/南水北调/影响因素Key words
Basing Four Aspects on Water Resources/water resources carrying capacity/system dynamics/South-to-North Water Diversion Project/influencing factors分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
DU Xinlong,PAN Huimin,WANG Hongrui,MEN Baohui..基于系统动力学模型的泰安市水资源承载力"四水四定"分析[J].水利水电技术（中英文）,2025,56(11):115-126,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52279005) （52279005）
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3205600) （2023YFC3205600）
