中国水产科学2025，Vol.32Issue(10)：1489-1505,17.DOI:10.12264/JFSC2025-0125
气候变化下南极磷虾夏季适生区分布变动预测
Forecast of distributional changes in summer suitable habitats for Antarctic krill under climate change
摘要
Abstract
Antarctic krill(Euphausia superba)serves as a keystone species in the Southern Ocean ecosystem and is a key target of polar fisheries.Climate change induces complex variations in various environmental factors,leading to uncertainties in krill distribution.We assessed shifts in suitable habitats of Antarctic krill in response to climate change by utilizing distribution data from the KRILLBASE and GBIF databases(1993-2016,summer)and selecting nine environmental parameters,including sea surface temperature,sea ice concentration,and sea surface salinity,etc.The Maximum Entropy Model(MaxEnt)was employed to analyze the relationship between Antarctic krill distribution and environmental factors,evaluate current summer habitat suitability in the circumpolar Southern Ocean,and forecast future changes under various climate scenarios.The results showed that the primary influencing factors for Antarctic krill included distance to the shelf break,sea ice concentration,sea surface temperature,and bathymetry,with their cumulative contribution exceeding 90％.In the region south of the Polar Front,the current suitable habitat spanned 1.3×107 km2,accounting for 40.44％of the study area,while high-suitability zones constituted merely 12.53％of the total suitable habitat.Under future climate scenarios,the total suitable habitat area decreases,with reductions in marginally and moderately suitable habitat and a significant expansion in highly suitable habitat.Sector-specific trends demonstrated substantial variability:the Atlantic sector exhibited the most sensitive changes with bidirectional fluctuations;the Western Indian and Eastern Indian sectors experienced overall reductions in suitable habitat but notable expansions in highly suitable habitat;and the Pacific sector revealed an increase in total suitable habitat,with significant growth in marginally and moderately suitable habitats.Additionally,the centroids of suitable habitats across all sectors shifted toward higher latitudes,indicating that climate change could be responsible for a poleward shift in krill distribution.These findings provide valuable insights into habitat dynamics of Antarctic krill in the Southern Ocean in the context of climate change,thereby supporting the scientific conservation and management of Antarctic krill fisheries.关键词
气候变化/南极磷虾/最大熵模型/适生区Key words
climate change/Euphausia superba/MaxEnt/suitable habitat分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
LI Wenxiong,YING Yiping,ZHAO Yunxia,MU Xiuxia,LI Xiansen,WANG Xinliang,ZHAO Xianyong..气候变化下南极磷虾夏季适生区分布变动预测[J].中国水产科学,2025,32(10):1489-1505,17.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC2807605) （2022YFC2807605）
中国水产科学研究院院级基本科研业务费专项(2024TD02). （2024TD02）
