中国水产科学2025，Vol.32Issue(10)：1506-1519,14.DOI:10.12264/JFSC2025-0108
基于MaxEnt模型的中国野生裙带菜适生区预测与变化分析
Predictive study on the potential habitat distribution and changes of Undaria pinnatifida in China based on the MaxEnt model
摘要
Abstract
Undaria pinnatifida is an endemic temperate large brown macroalgae of Northeast Asia,with wild populations restricted to the Zhoushan Islands of China.However,because of its artificial domestication and strong adaptability to wild migration,this species has established naturalized populations in multiple regions worldwide and is recognized as one of the top 100 invasive species globally.In this study,we aimed to construct a niche model for U.pinnatifida in Chinese marine areas,identify key environmental drivers,predict suitable habitat distribution under current and future climate scenarios,and provide a scientific basis for formulating targeted management and control strategies.The MaxEnt model was employed to assess potential habitat distribution and predict future habitat distribution changes by incorporating data from 1192 global distribution points and 21 terrestrial and marine environmental variables across corresponding time periods.The results showed that the model had excellent predictive power,with an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.9480.Mean sea surface temperature,mean air temperature of the coldest quarter,mean sea surface salinity,and mean air temperature of the driest quarter were the main limiting factors.Potentially suitable areas with predicted occurrence probability(P)≥ 0.25 were predominantly concentrated in the coastal waters of Zhejiang,Fujian,the Shandong Peninsula,and Liaodong Bay.Notably,Jinzhou and Changhai(Liaoning Province)and Shengsi Islands(Zhoushan,Zhejiang Province)exhibited the highest suitability for wild natural distribution(P≥0.45).Under multiple future climate scenarios,the range of suitable habitats in the southern Yangtze River region is projected to decrease,while the core area of Zhoushan(P≥ 0.45)will remain stable.Suitable areas in the northern coastal region are expected to show minimal fluctuations,indicating significant regional differences.Under multiple climate change scenarios,the future distribution of U.pinnatifida is anticipated to contract in southern regions but remain relatively stable in northern habitats.Therefore,differentiated management strategies are recommended,including enhanced invasion monitoring and early-warning systems in northern regions,alongside conservation of germplasm resources in southern wild populations to ensure ecological integrity and effective invasive species control.关键词
裙带菜/潜在分布/最大熵模型/未来气候Key words
Undaria pinnatifida/potential distribution/MaxEnt model/future climate分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
TIAN Kuo,WU Haobo,QIU Juwei,ZOU Jianbo,WANG Jingyi,SU Xiaoyan,WANG Yihang,ZHANG Xiumei..基于MaxEnt模型的中国野生裙带菜适生区预测与变化分析[J].中国水产科学,2025,32(10):1506-1519,14.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFD2401905) （2023YFD2401905）
浙江省省属高校科研院所基本科研业务费专项(2024J001-2) （2024J001-2）
舟山市科技计划项目(2023C41004). （2023C41004）
