摘要
Abstract
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period,the proportion of natural gas in China's energy consumption structure experienced short-term fluctuations,with its growth rate entering a new phase.The share of imported LNG in China's gas supply declined noticeably,shifting the supply structure toward pipeline gas.In the 15th Five-Year Plan period,the critical role of natural gas in the energy transition will become more prominent.The international LNG market is entering an easing cycle,while China continues to expand its LNG receiving terminal capacity.The multi-source supply capability will improve significantly,resulting in a more robust resource security system.Intensified market competition will drive down the price pivot,thereby activating demand potential.Spot LNG prices may fall below long-term contract prices,greatly enhancing the competitiveness of imported LNG in coastal provinces.Both the scale of China's natural gas market and its import volume will further expand,strengthening its influence in the international market.Under the new landscape,the risk of phased oversupply in China's natural gas industry has reemerged.Utilization rates of some LNG facilities may drop sharply,profit margins in the trading sector may narrow,and historically high-priced long-term contracts could weigh on corporate earnings.Moreover,supply security responsibilities have become more centralized,peak-shaving demands have grown more frequent,and the imbalance between corporate responsibilities and rights has intensified.During the 15th Five-Year Plan period,China's natural gas industry should adopt"efficiency improvement,value creation,and resilience strengthening"as its core objectives,carry out the work from such five aspects as the demand side,resource side,infrastructure side,integration and innovation,and ecosystem development,and systematically advance the high-quality development of the industry.关键词
天然气/消费量/供应量/能源转型/LNG/供需平衡/发展对策Key words
natural gas/consumption/supply/energy transition/LNG/supply-demand balance/development countermeasures分类
管理科学
