摘要
Abstract
Amidst the accelerating global energy transition and the international liquefied natural gas(LNG)market's entry into a new cycle,China's LNG import strategy necessitates restructuring.Despite being the world's largest LNG importer,China remains constrained by a"big but not strong"predicament,characterized by critical bottlenecks in pricing power,supply chain security,and domestic market mechanisms.This paper employs a PEST analysis to assess the external environment for China's LNG imports during the 15th Five-Year Plan period and establishes an analytical framework spanning from risk identification to systematic response.It indicates that while the projected loosening of global LNG supply during the 15th Five-Year Plan offers a strategic window of opportunity,such challenges as geopolitical risks,potential over-reliance on single sources,and green trade barriers are increasingly intensifying.Quantitative analysis reveals excessive risk exposure in procurement strategies solely pegged to spot prices,suggesting that a balanced portfolio is optimal for ensuring stable supply.The research conclude that China's LNG imports should be strategically positioned as a flexible adjustment resource in service of national energy security and dual-carbon objectives,requiring a fundamental shift from a passive resource buyer to an active market shaper.Finally,the paper proposes systematic countermeasures across such four dimensions as optimizing procurement portfolios,cultivating domestic price benchmarks,establishing regional trading hubs,and enhancing comprehensive trading capabilities.关键词
液化天然气(LNG)/国际贸易/进口风险/能源安全/能源转型/风险防范Key words
liquefied natural gas(LNG)/international trade/import risk/energy security/energy transition/risk prevention分类
管理科学
