国际石油经济2025，Vol.33Issue(12)：85-91,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-7298.2025.12.010
2025年中国天然气供需形势及采暖季应对建议
China's natural gas supply-demand dynamics in 2025 and policy recommendations for the heating season
摘要
Abstract
China's natural gas consumption reached 331.78 billion cubic meters from January to October in 2025,representing a year-on-year increase of 2.2%,albeit at a slower growth rate.Pipeline gas imports amounted to 68.87 billion cubic meters,up 7.6%year-on-year,while LNG imports stood at 70.53 billion cubic meters,reflecting a significant decline of 18.3%compared to the same period last year.For the 2025-2026 heating season,China's natural gas demand is projected to reach 199.4 billion cubic meters,an increase of 10 billion cubic meters or 5.3%year-on-year,exceeding the growth rate recorded in the 2024-2025 heating season.The peak consumption month is expected to be January 2026.The estimated market supply of natural gas for the 2025-2026 heating season ranges from 205 to 210 billion cubic meters,exceeding demand by approximately 5.6 to 10.6 billion cubic meters.While the overall market supply is relatively loose and extreme weather conditions could lead to temporary supply tightness during certain time.With the easing of natural gas supply pressure,the focus for the 2025-2026 heating season should be on balancing supply security and consumption promotion.Supply security efforts should prioritize such key regions as Hebei and Shandong.Additionally,enhancing supply allocation to industrial users is recommended to mitigate their shift toward alternative energy sources.It is also advisable to schedule inventory releases after the New Year's Day period and to consider implementing price adjustment volumes in February.关键词
天然气市场/需求/供应/价格/2025-2026年采暖季Key words
natural gas market/demand/supply/price/2025-2026 heating season分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
杨建红,杨万莉,王晓雅,朱小坤..2025年中国天然气供需形势及采暖季应对建议[J].国际石油经济,2025,33(12):85-91,7.
