林业科学2025，Vol.61Issue(12)：124-134,11.DOI:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20240807
气候变化背景下全球野生亚洲象潜在生境预测
Prediction of Potential Habitat of Global Wild Asian Elephants under Climate Change
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study evaluated the potential distribution of global wild Asian elephant habitats under current and future climate change,aiming to provide valuable information for the protection of global wild Asian elephant habitat.[Method]Based on 627 Asian elephant activity points and 13 environmental factors such as climate and terrain,the ENMeval package was used to optimize MaxEnt model that was used to evaluate the potential distribution of Asian elephant habitats under current climatic conditions in south Asia,southeast Asia,and southwestern China.Finally,the optimized MaxEnt model was used to evaluate potential distribution of habitat suitability for Asian elephants,and predict habitats of Asian elephants under future climate change.[Result]The optimized MaxEnt model had good prediction results,and the AUC value of both the training and testing data was above 0.85.The precipitation of coldest quarter(Bio19)and the temperature seasonality(Bio4)were dominant environmental factors influencing the potential distribution of habitat for Asian elephant,followed by elevation.The simulation results showed that the habitat of Asian elephant was about 149×104 km2,accounting for 19.38%of the study area(76.86×105 km2).The habitat of Asian elephant mainly distributed in the southern foothills of the Himalayas,northeastern India,Sri Lanka,southwestern border of China,as well as border areas of Laos,Vietnam,Myanmar and Thailand in southeast Asia,Malay Peninsula,northern Sumatra Island and northeastern Kalimantan Island and other places in Southeast Asia.Under future climate scenarios,the habitat of Asian elephant is showing a decreasing trend compared to the current situation.The habitat of Asian elephants in in southern foothills of the Himalayas and northeastern India will significantly decrease,and there is a trend of northward movement in southern foothills of the Himalayas.Moreover,The habitat of Asian elephant in other regions such as China,Laos,Vietnam and Malaysia will be obviously reduced.[Conclusion]Under future climate change,the habitat of Asian elephant would decrease,and the habitat for Asian elephants may move northward in southern foothills of the Himalayas.In the future,we should consider promoting cross-border cooperation,and formulating the strategy of Asian elephant habitat protection.关键词
亚洲象/气候变化/MaxEnt模型/生境Key words
Asian elephant/climate change/MaxEnt model/habitat分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
陈飞,张杰京,王继山,罗伟雄,汤永晶,樊辉..气候变化背景下全球野生亚洲象潜在生境预测[J].林业科学,2025,61(12):124-134,11.基金项目
云南省高层次科技人才及创新团队选拔专项-技术创新人才培养对象项目(202405AD350055) （202405AD350055）
云南省自然科学基金基础研究专项(202401AT070305) （202401AT070305）
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFF1305000). （2023YFF1305000）
