林业科学2025，Vol.61Issue(12)：153-163,11.DOI:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20240725
基于IPCC生产法的我国木质林产品碳储量动态评估及驱动因素分析
Dynamic Assessment of Carbon Storage of Harvested Wood Products(HWP)in China and Driving Factors Analysis Based on IPCC Production Approach
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The allocation of carbon emissions and the attribution of carbon storage resulting from international trade in harvested wood products(HWP)are one of the most controversial issues in international climate change negotiations.The latest production method and data from domestic official databases were used to calculate the carbon storage of HWP in China,investigate the changes and driving factors of HWP carbon storage,enhance its role in China’s carbon cycle,quantify its carbon pool function,and improve the accuracy of future predictions regarding carbon storage variations,by which the rational policies and measures were formulated,in order to consolidate China’s position and status in climate change negotiations for addressing climate change and achieving China’s"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"goals.[Method]By applying the method of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories,combined with the production and trade data of China over the years and parameters suitable for China’s national conditions,China’s HWP was divided into two stages:in-use and disposed.The carbon storage from 1978 to 2022 was calculated by adopting the 2019 revised version of the production approach(PA-2019)based on IPCC first-order decay method,and the driving factors of its changes were analyzed.[Result]Affected by national conditions,policies and natural disasters,the level of HWP carbon storage in China was relatively low and fluctuated greatly in the early stage.With the improvement of the economy and the transformation of forest management strategies,the HWP industry has developed rapidly,and the carbon storage of China’s HWP has generally shown an increasing trend,with a accelerating increasing rate.The annual carbon storage of in-use HWP had increased from 6.16 Tg CO2eq in 1978 to 198.01 Tg CO2eq in 2022,with a cumulative carbon storage of 2 973.72 Tg CO2eq.The annual carbon storage of disposed HWP had grown from 1.56 Tg CO2eq in 1978 to 21.11 Tg CO2eq in 2022,with a cumulative carbon storage of 290.89 Tg CO2eq.Over a period of 45 years from 1978 to 2022,the total cumulative carbon storage was 3 264.61 Tg CO2eq,with the cumulative carbon storage of in-use HWP accounting for 91.09%of total cumulative carbon storage.Among them,wood-based panels contributed the most to the carbon storage,accounting for as much as 68.15%,and played a dominant role in the sensitivity analysis.Sawnwood,and paper and paperboard accounted for 16.38%and 15.47%,respectively.[Conclusion]HWP is an important carbon storage resource in China,and holds a significant position in carbon sequestration and emission reduction.Accurately calculating HWP carbon stocks not only provides a data foundation and theoretical support for the compilation of national greenhouse gas inventories,but also helps China to secure a more favorable position in international climate negotiations and contribute to global climate governance.关键词
木质林产品/生产法/碳储量/碳减排/碳转移Key words
harvested wood products(HWP)/production approach/carbon storage/carbon emission reduction/carbon transfer分类
轻工纺织引用本文复制引用
陈碧雁,徐金梅,陈秀芳,张波..基于IPCC生产法的我国木质林产品碳储量动态评估及驱动因素分析[J].林业科学,2025,61(12):153-163,11.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFF0613802) （2023YFF0613802）
国家自然科学基金项目(32371806) （32371806）
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(CAFYBB2025ZA018,CAFYBB2023ZA003-3). （CAFYBB2025ZA018,CAFYBB2023ZA003-3）
