环境与职业医学2025，Vol.42Issue(12)：1491-1496,6.DOI:10.11836/JEOM25223
应用中断时间序列分析法评估炼钢厂迁出前后周边大气PM2.5及其部分重金属浓度变化
Quantify changes in ambient PM2.5 and three heavy metal components before and after relo-cation of a steel plant using interrupted time series analysis
摘要
Abstract
[Background]Industrial emissions are a well-established major source of urban fine particulate matter(PM2.5)and associated heavy metals.To improve local air quality,Shanghai No.1 Iron and Steel Plant in Baoshan District was entirely relocated,with all production lines successively shut down in 2018. [Objective]To evaluate the trends in PM2.5 and three heavy metal concentrations-chromium(Cr),mercury(Hg),and thallium(Tl)—in the local atmosphere pre-and post-relocation of the steel plant. [Methods]Taking the steel plant relocation in 2019 as the intervention cutoff point,this study was divided into two phases:pre-intervention(January 2017 to December 2018)and post-inter-vention(January 2019 to December 2021).Monthly mean pollutant concentrations were used to construct an interrupted time series(ITS)model,followed by segmented linear regression to assess the pre-and post-intervention trends in ambient PM2.5 and three heavy metals surrounding the steel plant. [Results]The ITS regression analysis revealed that the change in PM2.5 concentration(b2)after the intervention was-7.16 μg·m-3,while the changes in Cr,Hg,and Tl concentrations(b2)were-0.46,-0.03,and-0.06 ng·m-3,respectively.Prior to the intervention,PM2.5 mass concentrations exhibited a temporal decline with a slope of b1=-0.69(P<0.05);seasonal adjustment further strengthened the overall significance of the model.Before the intervention,the concentration of Cr increased over time,with a slope of b1=0.12(P<0.05).After the intervention,the concentration of Cr showed a gradual downward trend over time,with a slope(b1+b3)of-0.04,and significant sea-sonal variations were observed.The concentration of Hg decreased over time before the intervention,with a slope of b1=-0.002 9(P<0.05).After the intervention,the slope was-0.000 3,showing a further slow decline in Hg concentration over time.However,no sig-nificant seasonal trend was observed for Hg.The mass concentration of Tl decreased after the intervention,and the difference before and after the intervention was statistically significant(P<0.05).PM2.5,Cr,and Tl better fit to the seasonal model,whereas Hg showed a better fit to the non-seasonal model. [Conclusion]The steel plant relocation intervention has markedly improved local air quality.关键词
细颗粒物/重金属/城市环境改造/中断时间序列/大气污染Key words
particulate matter/heavy metal/urban environmental transformation/interrupted time series/air pollution分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
隋少峰,沈先标,任洋洋,袁震,韩凤婵,杨程..应用中断时间序列分析法评估炼钢厂迁出前后周边大气PM2.5及其部分重金属浓度变化[J].环境与职业医学,2025,42(12):1491-1496,6.基金项目
上海市加强公共卫生体系建设三年行动计划(2023-2025)重点学科项目(GWVI-11.1-39,GWVI-4) （2023-2025）
国家疾控局公共卫生人才培养支持项目(2023-28B) （2023-28B）
上海市宝山区卫生健康委员会优青(2023年育才)计划(BSWSYC-2023-20) （2023年育才）
