林业科学研究2025，Vol.38Issue(6)：80-88,9.DOI:10.12403/j.1001-1498.20240355
杂种落叶松人工林单木断面积生长模型构建
Study on Individual Tree Basal Area Growth Model of Hybrid Larch Plantation
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study aimed to develop an individual-tree basal area growth model for Hybrid larch plantations,incorporating stand competition and climatic factors under different initial planting densit-ies.The model provides a theoretical basis for the management of these plantations under future climate change.[Method]Based on 23 399 basal area observations collected from 2004 to 2023 across 16 plots of hybrid larch plantations in Jiangshanjiao Farm,Heilongjiang Province,four commonly used theoretical growth models were evaluated.Dummy-variable models of individual tree basal area for stands with differ-ent initial planting densities that included age,competition,and climate as predictor variables were de-veloped.On this basis,a mixed-effects model was developed introducing random effects at the tree level.The fixed-effect parameters of the final model were used to simulate the responses of tree basal area growth to tree age,competition,climate,and planting density.[Result]Compared with the basic model,in-corporating tree age,stand competition,and climatic factors into the dummy variable model for different planting densities improved the model fit,with the adjusted R2 increasing from 0.525 to 0.554 and RMSE decreasing from 52.3 cm2 to 50.7 cm2.Compared to the dummy variable model,the random effects model improved model fitting accuracy(Ra2=0.971,RMSE=13.1 cm2).It was found that the basal area of indi-vidual trees at different initial planting densities showed a significant difference,with the trend of initial planting densities of 3 300 plants·hm-2>2 500 plants·hm-2>4 400 plants·hm-2>6 600 plants·hm-2.Un-der the same initial planting density,individual tree basal area increased with age and MCMT and de-creased with increasing N.[Conclusion]Tree age,stand competition and climate factors are important factors affecting tree basal area growth in Hybrid Larch plantations,with age being the most important factor.Significant differences exist in individual-tree basal area across different initial planting densities,with the 3 300 trees·hm-2density exhibiting superior growth performance overall.关键词
杂种落叶松/断面积生长模型/气候因子/混合效应模型Key words
Hybrid Larch/basal area growth model/Climate factors/mixed effect model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
朱万才,刘奇峰,潘研,刘兆刚..杂种落叶松人工林单木断面积生长模型构建[J].林业科学研究,2025,38(6):80-88,9.基金项目
黑龙江省省属科研院所科研业务费项目(QN2024-06) （QN2024-06）
