水土保持学报2025，Vol.39Issue(6)：106-117,126,13.DOI:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2025.06.019
基于PLUS-InVEST模型的三峡库区土地利用变化与土壤侵蚀多情景预测
Multi-Scenario Prediction of Land Use Changes and Soil Erosion in Three Gorges Reservoir Region Based on PLUS-InVEST Model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]As a critical ecological barrier in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and a key national region for soil erosion control,the Three Gorges Reservoir Region(TGRR)demands in-depth investigations into the future spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use and soil erosion.Understanding these dynamics is significant for optimizing land use planning and promoting sustainable management of soil and water resources.[Methods]Using multi-source data including natural,socio-economic,and remote sensing data from 2000 to 2020,the spatiotemporal evolution of land use and soil erosion in the TGRR was systematically analyzed.The land use and soil erosion patterns in 2030 were simulated under three scenarios of natural development,ecological protection,and urban construction.[Results]1)From 2000 to 2020,cropland and grassland areas in the TGRR declined continuously,while forestland and construction land expanded significantly.The dominant land use transformations involved mutual conversions among cropland,forestland,and grassland.2)The average soil erosion moduli in 2000,2010,and 2020 were 34.76,24.73,20.70 t/(hm²·a),respectively,indicating a significant weakening trend.Cropland experienced the most severe erosion,followed by grassland and forestland.Erosion intensity was mainly slight and mild,with a spatial distribution characterized by a regional pattern of higher levels of erosion in the east and lower levels in the west.3)By 2030,the land use patterns under the three different scenarios show significant variations.Cropland is predicted to decrease,while construction land will expand notably.Under the scenario of ecological protection,forestland increases most significantly.4)By 2030,soil erosion is expected to be further mitigated,particularly under the ecological protection scenario.Medium to high-intensity erosion areas will transition to lower intensity levels,with a reduction in areas affected by severe and stronger erosion.Cropland,forestland,and grassland will remain the primary land types subject to erosion.Adopting a proactive,ecological protection-oriented development model with scientific land use planning is essential for maintaining a dynamic balance between ecological protection and economic development.[Conclusion]This study provides critical insights into future land use and soil erosion trends in the TGRR,offering a theoretical foundation for rational land use planning and the formulation of effective soil conservation strategies.The findings also provide valuable insights for the coordinated management of water and soil resources in the Yangtze River basin.关键词
三峡库区/土地利用变化/土壤侵蚀/InVEST模型/PLUS模型/多情景预测Key words
Three Gorges Reservoir Region/land use change/soil erosion/InVEST model/PLUS model/multi-scenario prediction分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
胡馨怡,肖作林,秦川,成鑫,陈吉龙,鞠佳伶..基于PLUS-InVEST模型的三峡库区土地利用变化与土壤侵蚀多情景预测[J].水土保持学报,2025,39(6):106-117,126,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42001388) （42001388）
重庆市教委科学技术研究项目(KJQN202300558) （KJQN202300558）
重庆市自然科学基金创新发展联合基金项目(CSTB2023NSCQ-LZX0150) （CSTB2023NSCQ-LZX0150）
重庆市水利局项目(CQS23C01036) （CQS23C01036）
重庆师范大学基金项目(22XLB011) （22XLB011）
