水土保持学报2025，Vol.39Issue(6)：127-138,12.DOI:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2025.06.038
基于XGBoost-SHAP的三峡库区生态屏障区生态系统服务权衡及驱动力分析
Analysis of Trade-offs and Driving Forces of Ecosystem Services in Ecological Barrier Zone of Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on XGBoost-SHAP Model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study aims to investigate the trade-offs among ecosystem services and their driving factors in the ecological barrier zone of the Three Gorges Reservoir area,thereby providing a scientific basis for integrated ecosystem management and ecological security in the region.[Methods]Based on multi-source geographic data including land use/cover data,meteorological data,and soil data in the ecological barrier zone of the Three Gorges Reservoir area from 2000 to 2023,the CASA,RUSLE,and InVEST models were employed to systematically evaluate five typical ecosystem services:Water yield,carbon sequestration,soil conservation,habitat maintenance,and water purification.The trade-offs and synergies among these ecosystem services were examined,and the XGBoost-SHAP model was further utilized to identify the key driving factors of trade-offs among ecosystem services.[Results]1)Water yield,carbon sequestration,and soil conservation showed an initial decrease followed by an increasing trend from 2000 to 2023,while habitat quality and water purification showed a declining trend.Spatially,the high-value areas for water yield,habitat maintenance,soil conservation,and water purification were mainly distributed in the central and eastern regions,while carbon sequestration exhibited a decreasing trend from the central regions towards the eastern and western regions.2)Overall,synergistic relationships dominated among the five ecosystem services,and the synergistic regions were primarily distributed in the central part of the ecological barrier zone and regions with higher altitudes and greater vegetation cover.In contrast,the trade-off effects were mainly observed along banks of the river,as well as in the urban area of Chongqing to the west and the region adjacent to the urban area of Yichang to the east.3)Precipitation growth rate,slope,altitude,and vegetation cover were the main driving factors determining trade-offs among ecosystem services,and their impacts exhibited certain threshold effect.Population density was found to exacerbate trade-offs among ecosystem services to some extent.[Conclusion]Future ecological restoration projects in the ecological barrier zone should place greater emphasis on the non-linear impacts and threshold effects of natural and anthropogenic-driven factors on trade-offs,so as to achieve a more precise multifunctional enhancement of ecosystem services.关键词
生态系统服务/权衡与协同/XGBoost-SHAP模型/驱动因素/三峡库区生态屏障区Key words
ecosystem services/trade-offs and synergies/XGBoost-SHAP model/driving factors/ecological barrier zone of Three Gorges Reservoir area分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
杨佳,斛如媛,赵海平,勾蒙蒙,欧阳帅,刘常富,肖文发..基于XGBoost-SHAP的三峡库区生态屏障区生态系统服务权衡及驱动力分析[J].水土保持学报,2025,39(6):127-138,12.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFF1305205) （2023YFF1305205）
