西北师范大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.61Issue(6)：86-95,104,11.DOI:10.16783/j.cnki.nwnuz.2025.06.010
经济收缩期兰州市人口流动与产业韧性的圈层协调及发展预测
Coordination and development prediction of population mobility and industrial resilience of Lanzhou City in economic contraction period
摘要
Abstract
Based on the"valley-valley"method to divide the period from 2007 to 2020 into economic contraction periods,with Lanzhou City,a major industrial city in northwest China,as the research area,using the population flow and economic data of each district and county in Lanzhou from 2007 to 2020,this study analyzes the hierarchical structure of regional population flow,the layered structure of industrial resilience,and the coupling and heterogeneity between them.The study finds that the overall economic resilience of Lanzhou's districts and counties has shown a consistent"smooth change-rise-decline-smooth change"trend over the 14 years,with similar changes in industrial resilience.The coupling and coordination degree between population flow and economic resilience in Lanzhou's districts and counties has shown an upward trend from"basic dysfunction"to"basic coordination,"with an average level rising from 0.496 to 0.513,exhibiting a"inner and outer ring"structure.The Markov prediction results show that the coordination between population flow and economic resilience in Lanzhou will gradually ease in the next 5 years,with overall moderate and positive changes.Taking into account the constraints and mutual promotion,this study provides relevant strategies for the coordinated development of population flow and industrial upgrading in the northwestern industrial heavy town,with a focus on increasing agricultural innovation investment,solidifying production hard power,and enhancing diversification of the industrial structure.关键词
人口流动/产业韧性/耦合协调度/圈层异质性Key words
population mobility/industrial resilience/coupling coordination degree/ring heterogeneity分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
钱国权,董蕴萱,颜碧娇,王梅梅,寇蕾蕾..经济收缩期兰州市人口流动与产业韧性的圈层协调及发展预测[J].西北师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,61(6):86-95,104,11.基金项目
甘肃省社科规划重点资助项目(2022ZD002) （2022ZD002）
