沙漠与绿洲气象2025，Vol.19Issue(6)：37-45,9.DOI:10.12057/j.issn.2097-6801.2412.15115
不同重现期下哈密市峡沟水库流域暴雨山洪灾害风险评估
Risk Assessment of Heavy Rainfall and Flash Flood Disasters under Different Return Periods in the Xiagou Reservoir Basin in Hami City
摘要
Abstract
This study focuses on the Xiagou Reservoir Basin in Yiwu County,Hami City,using historical precipitation data from 1961 to 2023.The FloodArea model and return period functions were employed to estimate areal rainfall for extreme precipitation events under different return periods and to simulate flood inundation risks.The results show that the maximum daily precipitation in the Xiagou Basin has increased significantly from 1961 to 2023,with an average increase of 2.1 mm per decade.This trend has accelerated since the late 1980s.The estimated areal rainfall for return periods of 100,50,30 years was 51.83,34.94,26.23 mm,respectively.The simulation results indicate that the inundation area and depth increase significantly with longer return period.For return periods of 30 years or more,the areal rainfall reaches the heavy rainfall standard for Xinjiang.The vulnerability assessment of disaster-bearing bodies shows that vulnerability increases significantly with the increase in the flood return period.For a 100-year flood with an inundation depth exceeding 1.8 meters,up to 60.87%of the population and 54.03%of the GDP could be affected.关键词
暴雨山洪灾害/FloodArea模型/重现期/承灾体易损性/水库流域Key words
heavy rainfall and flash floods/FloodArea model/return period/vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies/reservoir basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
吴秀兰,余行杰,王婷,刘亚彬,江远安..不同重现期下哈密市峡沟水库流域暴雨山洪灾害风险评估[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2025,19(6):37-45,9.基金项目
新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发任务专项课题(2022B03027-3) （2022B03027-3）
