沙漠与绿洲气象2025，Vol.19Issue(6)：71-79,9.DOI:10.12057/j.issn.2097-6801.2406.21002
WMO/S2S模式对2020年中国东部持续极端高温事件预报评估
Assessment of WMO/S2S in Simulating Persistent Extreme Heat Events over Eastern China in 2020
摘要
Abstract
Based on operational Sub-seasonal to Seasonal(S2S)prediction products from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),the China Meteorological Administrator(CMA),the United Kingdom Meteorological Office(UKMO),and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP),as part of the World Meteorological Organization(WMO)S2S project,along with daily extreme maximum temperature data from 2 407 observatories in China from 1961 to 2020,this study developed a gridded objective identification method and a quantitative prediction scoring index for regional persistent extreme heat events.The simulation performance of extended-range prediction for regional persistent heat events over eastern China during 2020 was evaluated.The results show that persistent heat events in 2020 were characterized by early onset,long duration,and extensive spatial coverage.The four selected models achieved higher comprehensive test scores(Icts)for longer duration cases over South China,the Yangtze River basin,and the Jiangnan region.Forecast performance varied notably by region among different ensemble members ranked in descending order,with the maximum member(Max1)exhibiting a positive bias in predicting longer duration,while the Icts decreased as the number of ensemble members increased.The Multi-Model Ensemble(MME)scores were moderately higher than those of individual model.Bias corrections of ECMWF improved the Icts,with the largest increment reaching 0.16.关键词
WMO/S2S多模式/持续高温事件/预报评估/偏差订正Key words
WMO/S2S models/persistent heat events/forecast evaluation/bias correction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
池艳珍,鲍瑞娟,何芬,王彦明..WMO/S2S模式对2020年中国东部持续极端高温事件预报评估[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2025,19(6):71-79,9.基金项目
福建省自然科学基金项目(2025J011226) （2025J011226）
福建省气象局开放式基金项目(2023KJ01) （2023KJ01）
