电力系统自动化2026，Vol.50Issue(1)：61-73,13.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20241127005
计及风电不确定性的电网前瞻调度多时段平衡风险分级预警
Hierarchical Early-warning for Multi-period Balance Risk in Look-ahead Dispatch of Power Grid Considering Uncertainty of Wind Power
摘要
Abstract
As wind power increasingly becomes the mainstay of electricity supply,intra-day prediction deviations stemming from wind power uncertainty pose severe challenges to power balance.Look-ahead dispatch serves as an effective bridge between day-ahead dispatch and intra-day automatic generation control.To this end,a hierarchical early-warning method for balance risks in look-ahead dispatch of power grid considering the uncertainty of wind power is proposed.Furthermore,a sample enhancement method based on point estimation and matrix normal distribution theory is introduced.The parametric data generation mode is used to expand minority-class samples and enhance the model prediction accuracy and scenario coverage.Finally,based on the two key indicators of net load deviation and adjustable resource capacity,an early-warning model for multi-period balance risk in look-ahead dispatch is constructed to provide hierarchical early-warning for the balance risk of the system in the next few hours.Simulation on the IEEE 118-bus test system verify that the proposed method can rapidly and accurately provide early-warning of balance risks in the next few hours,and the hierarchical warnings furnish valuable reference information for look-ahead dispatch.关键词
风电/不确定性/前瞻调度/预测/预警/净负荷偏差/资源可调容量/样本增强/平衡风险Key words
wind power/uncertainty/look-ahead dispatch/prediction/early-warning/net load deviation/adjustable resource capacity/sample enhancement/balance risk引用本文复制引用
MU Zeyu,CHEN Siyuan,XU Peidong,SI Ruiqi,ZHANG Jun,XU Jian,HUANG He,CHEN Yiping..计及风电不确定性的电网前瞻调度多时段平衡风险分级预警[J].电力系统自动化,2026,50(1):61-73,13.基金项目
国家重点研发计划资助项目:"支撑20%新能源电量占比场景下的电网智能调度关键技术"(2022YFB2403500). This work is supported by National Key R&D Program of China(No.2022YFB2403500). （2022YFB2403500）
