当代经济管理2026，Vol.48Issue(1)：73-83,11.DOI:10.13253/j.cnki.ddjjgl.2026.01.008
上有老,下有小:家庭养老压力对生育意愿的影响
Sandwiched:The Impact of Elderly Care Pressure on Fertility Intentions
摘要
Abstract
Against the backdrop of rapid aging and birth rates declining,Chinese families face double care pressures for"the elderly and the young".Drawing on data from the 2025 China Social Governance Survey,this study analyzes the mechanism by which family elderly care burdens influence fer-tility intentions through an intergenerational distribution perspective,employing OLS and bivariate Probit models.Findings reveal that family elderly care burdens significantly suppress fertility intentions.This conclusion remains robust after endogeneity treatment and stability tests,with a stronger in-hibitory effect on multi-child fertility intentions than on single-child intentions.This suppression is more pronounced in urban areas among those with modern elderly care concepts and who are highly educated.Mechanism tests indicate that:inter-generational caregiving acts as a buffer that mitigates care pressure and boosts fertility;the financial support from the elderly to the young amplifies the negative impact as elderly care pressure mounts;The conflict between self-fulfillment and filial duties intensifies the adverse relationship between elderly care pressure and fertility intentions.The findings deepen our understanding of how family elderly care burdens shape reproductive choices and offer policy insights for constructing a public service system of"supporting the elderly and young together"and unlocking China's fertility potential.关键词
家庭养老压力/生育意愿/代际分配/"一老一小"Key words
family elderly care pressure/fertility intention/intergenerational distribution/"the elderly and the young"分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
Wang Yao,Ruan Haibo..上有老,下有小:家庭养老压力对生育意愿的影响[J].当代经济管理,2026,48(1):73-83,11.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目"中国基层治理现代化的制度、成效与经验研究"(24&ZD142) （24&ZD142）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目"合作生产:社会化养老服务可持续供给的实践逻辑"(2025CXZZ113). （2025CXZZ113）
