电气技术2026，Vol.27Issue(1)：20-27,34,9.
基于改进粒子群优化算法-粒子滤波模型的IGBT寿命预测方法研究
Research on IGBT life prediction method based on improved particle swarm optimization-particle filter model
摘要
Abstract
To enhance the prediction accuracy of insulated gate bipolar transistor(IGBT)lifetime,reduce maintenance costs,and mitigate system failure risks,a novel IGBT lifetime prediction method integrating the improved particle swarm optimization(IPSO)and particle filter(PF)is proposed.By selecting the collector-emitter on-state voltage(Vce_on)as the degradation characteristic parameter,and based on the publicly available historical Vce_on dataset from NASA,the degradation model is fitted using Matlab to determine model parameters,thereby constructing the state equation and observation equation.Adaptive weights and tangent functions are employed to optimize particle swarm optimization parameters,addressing the issues of premature convergence in the early stage and proneness to local optima in the later stage.An IPSO-PF model is established,where IPSO's optimal parameter search dynamically adjusts the particle weights in both the prediction phase and resampling phase of PF,enabling particles to better approximate the posterior probability distribution of the system.The failure threshold of Vce_on is set to achieve accurate IGBT lifetime prediction.Simulation analysis indicates that the average relative accuracy of the IPSO-PF model reaches 0.971 1,which is 20.44%,6.99%,and 5.37%higher than that of the PF,unscented Kalman particle filter(UPF),and hunter-prey optimizer particle filter(HPO-PF)models,respectively,which demonstrates that the IPSO-PF model can effectively enhance the accuracy of IGBT lifetime prediction.To verify the effectiveness of each improved module on the model,ablation experiments are designed,and the results confirm that each improved module has effectively promoted the performance of the IPSO-PF model.关键词
绝缘栅双极型晶体管(IGBT)/寿命预测/特征参数/粒子群优化算法(PSO)/粒子滤波(PF)/消融实验Key words
insulated gate bipolar transistor(IGBT)/lifetime prediction/characteristic parameter/particle swarm optimization(PSO)/particle filter(PF)/ablation experiment引用本文复制引用
LIU Dongjing,LI Tao,XIAO Yu,ZHOU Xiaoshu..基于改进粒子群优化算法-粒子滤波模型的IGBT寿命预测方法研究[J].电气技术,2026,27(1):20-27,34,9.基金项目
广西重点研发计划(桂科AB25069315) 南宁市科学研究与技术开发计划科技重大专项(20241026) 2024年度广西高校中青年教师科研基础能力提升项目(2024KY0203) 广西科技计划项目(桂科AB24010102) 广西制造系统与先进制造技术重点实验室(主任基金)项目(19-050-44-002Z) 广西科技基地和人才专项(桂科AD 25069080) （桂科AB25069315）
