电器与能效管理技术Issue(12)：76-83,8.DOI:10.16628/j.cnki.2095-8188.2025.12.010
基于系统动力学的甘肃省低碳转型路径模拟
Simulation of Low-Carbon Transition Path in Gansu Province Based on System Dynamics
FAN Haifeng 1WANG Tingting1
作者信息
- 1. State Grid Gansu Zhangye Power Supply Company,Zhangye 734000,China
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Gansu is an important ecological barrier region in China,and accelerating the low-carbon transition of the energy system is an inevitable choice to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality as scheduled.Based on the system dynamics theory and the actual development of Gansu Province,a causal chain and a low carbon transition path simulation model containing three subsystems:energy demand,carbon emission and carbon trading is constructed.Based on the results of variable sensitivity analysis,four single-parameter regulation schemes of GDP growth rate,energy structure,production structure and carbon trading policy as well as a comprehensive regulation scheme are formulated.The carbon reduction effects of the above regulation schemes are clarified through the dynamic simulation.On this basis,the main path of low-carbon transition in Gansu province is proposed,providing the support for the realization of the"dual carbon"goal.关键词
低碳转型/系统动力学/碳交易/情景模拟Key words
low-carbon transition/system dynamics/carbon trading/scenario simulation分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
FAN Haifeng,WANG Tingting..基于系统动力学的甘肃省低碳转型路径模拟[J].电器与能效管理技术,2025,(12):76-83,8.
