干旱区地理2025，Vol.48Issue(12)：2169-2182,14.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.090
基于GeoSOS-FLUS和InVEST模型的新疆地区土地利用变化模拟及碳储量预测
Simulation of land use change and prediction of carbon storage in Xinjiang based on GeoSOS-FLUS and InVEST models
摘要
Abstract
Carbon storage plays an crucial role in terrestrial ecosystems.The change of land use is one of the key factors influencing the carbon cycle and carbon storage in regional ecosystems.This study focuses on Xinjiang as the research area,utilizing land use data from 1980 to 2022 and coupling the GeoSOS-FLUS and InVEST models to analyze the changes in land use and carbon storage in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2022.Additionally,the study sim-ulates changes in land use and carbon storage under three scenarios,namely,the natural development scenario(DAU),ecological protection scenario(EPS),and rapid development scenario(RDS),for the years 2030 and 2060.The results show that:(1)From 1980 to 2022,unused land accounted for the largest proportion of land types in Xinjiang,and the total area of cultivated land,forest land with<30%canopy density,grassland with>20%coverage,and construction land increased.In contrast,forest land with>30%canopy density and wood-lands,grassland with<20%coverage,water bodies,and unused land decreased.(2)Excluding unused land,dur-ing the period from 2030 to 2060,farmland and grassland remained the dominant land use types.(3)From 1980 to 2022,carbon storage initially increased,followed by a decrease,with 2010 as the turning point.The expansion of construction land,degradation of forest and grassland,and reduction of water bodies were the main contribu-tors to the decline in carbon storage.(4)From 2030 to 2060,the high-value areas of carbon storage in Xinjiang were primarily distributed in the Altai Mountains,Tianshan Mountains,and the northern edge of the Tarim Basin.Under the EPS,carbon storage was higher than that under the natural development and rapid development scenar-ios.The research findings are expected to contribute to guiding adjustments in land use patterns and optimizing the management of carbon storage in the Xinjiang region,significantly facilitating the achievement of regional"dual carbon"goals.关键词
碳储量/土地利用/GeoSOS-FLUS模型/InVEST模型/新疆Key words
carbon storage/land use change/GeoSOS-FLUS model/InVEST model/Xinjiang引用本文复制引用
NIU Feifei,GUO Jing,LUO Jie,GOU Xueping,LIU Xuewei,ZHANG Renping..基于GeoSOS-FLUS和InVEST模型的新疆地区土地利用变化模拟及碳储量预测[J].干旱区地理,2025,48(12):2169-2182,14.基金项目
自治区重点研发项目(2022B01012-2) （2022B01012-2）
国家自然科学基金(52460030) （52460030）
自治区林业发展补助资金项目(XJLYKJ-2023-20)资助 （XJLYKJ-2023-20）
