海洋地质与第四纪地质2025，Vol.45Issue(6)：93-102,10.DOI:10.16562/j.cnki.0256-1492.2025082601
冲绳海槽冷泉区天然气水合物系统对气候变暖的多尺度响应
Multi-scale response of natural gas hydrate systems to climate warming in the Okinawa Trough cold seep region
摘要
Abstract
The Okinawa Trough,an active back-arc basin in the western Pacific,hosts vast natural-gas-hydrate reserves whose dissociation-driven methane seepage exerts a non-negligible influence on the global carbon cycle.We constructed a bottom-water temperature(BWT)time series from the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM)to 2 100 AD,and combined it with numerical modules(hydrate phase-equilibrium,stability-zone distribution,and resource empirical models)to quantify the multi-scale impacts of BWT rise and sea-level change on hydrate stability.Results show that in the LGM(1.94±0.8 ℃),the gas hydrate stability zone(GHSZ)extended to 82.7±14.8 m below seafloor and the hydrate inventory totaled to 0.17±0.03 Gt.After LGM,although a 150-m sea-level rise supplied hydrostatic compensation that offset～60%of the warming effect on hydrate stability,a BWT increase of 2.1±0.4 ℃ triggered dissociation,reducing the inventory to 0.14±0.02 Gt by 1985.In recent decades,accelerating global warming has raised BWT from 3.5±1.09 ℃ to 4.5±0.82 ℃,shoaling the GHSZ by～3.3 m and eroding the hydrate mass by 21%.Coupled with CMIP6 climate projections,we estimated that BWT would reach 6.6±0.93 ℃ by 2 100 AD,thinning the GHSZ to 61.6±4.8 m and shrinking the resource to 0.05±0.01 Gt.This study unveils the response mechanism of Okinawa Trough hydrates to climatic warming and highlights their potential contribution as a regional carbon source to the global budget,providing critical constraints on climate-model refinement and ecological-risk assessment.关键词
碳循环/冷泉甲烷泄漏/水合物稳定带/气候变暖/冲绳海槽Key words
carbon cycle/cold seep methane leakage/hydrate stability zone/global warming/Okinawa Trough分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
XU Sinan,LV Taiheng,ZHOU Yucheng,HOU Xiaofan,WU Zijun,XIN Mei,SUN Zhilei,LI Shixing,ZHANG Xilin,GENG Wei,CAO Hong,ZHAI Bin,ZHANG Dong,CHEN Ye,XU Cuiling..冲绳海槽冷泉区天然气水合物系统对气候变暖的多尺度响应[J].海洋地质与第四纪地质,2025,45(6):93-102,10.基金项目
山东省重点研发计划(重大科技创新工程)(2023CXGC010401) （重大科技创新工程）
山东省博士后创新项目(SDCX-ZG-202302026) （SDCX-ZG-202302026）
国家自然科学基金(42406046,42476082,42176057,92358301) （42406046,42476082,42176057,92358301）
中国博士后科学基金项目(2023M741869) （2023M741869）
同济大学海洋地质国家重点实验室开放课题(MGK202418) （MGK202418）
