金融理论与教学2025，Vol.43Issue(6)：30-33,118,5.
基于灰色预测模型的龙江惠民保预测分析
Prediction and Analysis of Longjiang Huimin Insurance Based on Grey Prediction Model
摘要
Abstract
This paper conducts analysis and prediction on Longjiang Huimin Insurance in Heilongjiang Province,aiming to fill the gap in quantitative research on local inclusive medical insurance.Using the Grey GM(1,1)Model,and based on indicators such as the number of participants,insurance participation rate,and total insurance premium from 2022 to 2024,it forecasts that these three indicators will show a year-on-year downward trend from 2025 to 2027,with an average annual decline of over 20%.The paper analyzes its multiple dilemmas:the potential insured population shrinks naturally due to population outflow;the low insurance participation rate exacerbates the death spiral risk and the residents'economic pressure weakens their motivation to participate in insurance.Overall,the development situation is challenging.Corresponding suggestions are put forward in this paper,hoping to provide references for the government to formulate medical insurance policies and for insurance institutions to optimize products.关键词
灰色预测模型/龙江惠民保/趋势分析Key words
Grey Prediction Model/Longjiang Huimin Insurance/trend analysis分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
LI Yiming,XU Yi,QU Haoyue..基于灰色预测模型的龙江惠民保预测分析[J].金融理论与教学,2025,43(6):30-33,118,5.基金项目
2024年省属本科高校基本科研业务费项目"基于双重差分法的普惠金融促进黑龙江省区域经济发展的研究"(2024-KYYWF-E017). （2024-KYYWF-E017）
