昆明医科大学学报2025，Vol.46Issue(12)：69-74,6.DOI:10.12259/j.issn.2095-610X.S20251208
基于凝血功能指标构建初诊多发性骨髓瘤患者ISS高危分期预测模型
Construction of A Predictive Model for High-risk ISS Stage in Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Patients Based on Coagulation Indicators
摘要
Abstract
Objectives To investigate the correlation between coagulation function indicators and International Staging System(ISS)staging in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma(NDMM)patients,and to establish a predictive model for ISS high-risk staging based on coagulation indicators.Methods A total of 114 NDMM patients from May 2021 to December 2024 were collected as the model development cohort and randomly divided into training set(80 cases)and internal validation set(34 cases)at a ratio of 7∶3;52 patients from January to June 2025 were collected as external validation cohort.Patients were stratified into stage I/II group and stage III group according to ISS staging,and differences in coagulation function indicators between the two groups were compared.Spearman correlation analysis was used to evaluate the correlations between coagulation indicators and β2-microglobulin(β2-MG)and albumin(ALB).Binary logistic regression was employed to identify independent r isk factors for ISS high-risk staging,and a nomogram prediction model was constructed to assess its predictive performance.Results In ISS stage III patients,levels of prothrombin time(PT),activated partial thromboplastin time(APTT),fibrinogen(FIB),thrombin time(TT),and thrombomodulin(TM)were all significantly higher than those in ISS stage I/II patients(all P<0.05).Correlation analysis showed that all five coagulation function indicators were positively correlated with β2-microglobulin,while PT,APTT,and TT were negatively correlated with albumin.Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that PT,TT,and TM were independent risk factors for ISS high-risk staging.The nomogram prediction model based on PT,TT,and TM showed an AUC of 0.849,with sensitivity of 90.6%and specificity of 67.6%.Conclusions PT,TT,and TM are closely associated with ISS staging and can serve as independent risk factors for high-risk staging.关键词
多发性骨髓瘤/凝血功能/国际分期系统/预测模型/相关性Key words
Multiple myeloma/Coagulation function/International staging system/Predictive model/Correlation分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
LI Ruicheng,JING Huarong,WU Yin,LIN Ziqi,ZHAO Peipei,WEI Shan,WANG Tian..基于凝血功能指标构建初诊多发性骨髓瘤患者ISS高危分期预测模型[J].昆明医科大学学报,2025,46(12):69-74,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(81772485) （81772485）
