空间科学学报2025，Vol.45Issue(6)：1439-1450,12.DOI:10.11728/cjss2025.06.2024-0123
频域特征叠加时域突变的乘性模型预测电离层TEC方法
A Multiplicative Model with Frequency-domain Features Superimposed on Time-domain Mutations for Predicting Ionospheric TEC Methods
WANG Shuai 1QUAN Lin 2WANG Kunpeng 2LI Ling 2YUAN Gang 2KANG Lihua3
作者信息
- 1. Beijing Institute of Tracking and Communication Technology,Beijing 100094||Space Information College,Space Engineering University,Beijing 101416||School of Geophysics and Geomatics,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074
- 2. Beijing Institute of Tracking and Communication Technology,Beijing 100094
- 3. Space Information College,Space Engineering University,Beijing 101416
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Total Electronic Content(TEC)is an important characteristic parameter of the ionosphere,which has a great influence on the navigation error correction and other applications,but the current ionospheric TEC prediction accuracy cannot fully meet the demand,and there are deficiencies in the ac-curacy and lead time.The paper focuses on the needs of regional ionospheric TEC forecasting,compre-hensively considers the characteristics of ionospheric TEC in both frequency and time domains,analyzes the ionospheric TEC changes in multiple cycle lengths in the frequency domain according to the charac-teristics of trend,periodicity,and suddenness of the changes in the ionospheric TEC affected by solar ac-tivities,considers the suddenness of the geomagnetic storms and other factors on the ionospheric TEC in the time domain,and considers the Dst index and latitude/longitude as the input parameters for fore-casting.Forecast input parameters,and train the specificity of the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling in each region.The experimental results show that the Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)of the proposed method is better than 1.262 Total Electronic Content Unit(TECU)in the middle latitude region during the geomagnetic lull period.The RMSE of 1-day forecast value is better than 1.094 TECU,and the RMSE of 7-day forecast value is better than 2.771 TECU during high solar activity years.The RMSE of the 7-day forecast value is better than 4.186 TECU and the RMSE of the 1-day forecast value is better than 4.115 TECU during the geomagnetic active period.In this paper,a prediction model with a 7-day lead is established,and the method shows good performance in forecasting accuracy and timeliness.关键词
电离层总电子含量/7天预测/频域时域叠加/地磁扰动Key words
Total ionospheric electron content/7-day forecast/Superposition of frequency domain and time domain/Geomagnetic disturbance分类
航空航天引用本文复制引用
WANG Shuai,QUAN Lin,WANG Kunpeng,LI Ling,YUAN Gang,KANG Lihua..频域特征叠加时域突变的乘性模型预测电离层TEC方法[J].空间科学学报,2025,45(6):1439-1450,12.
