能源研究与管理2025，Vol.17Issue(4)：77-88,12.DOI:10.16056/j.2096-7705.2025.04.010
"双碳"目标下江苏省能源转型风险识别与评价
Risk Identification and Evaluation of Provincial Energy Transition under the"Dual Carbon"Target
摘要
Abstract
The"dual carbon"goals drive the continuous advancement of energy transition,but also bring risks from aspects such as technology,economy and policy.To scientifically identify and accurately assess the risks of energy transition,and clarify the significance and interaction mechanisms,taking Jiangsu,a major province in China in terms of economy,energy consumption and carbon emissions,as an example,the LDA model is adopted to identify the transformation risk factors.The fuzzy set and knowledge graph embedding are introduced to construct the fuzzy DEMATEL-KGE model to determine the importance of the risk factors and the causal relationship among the risks.The results show that,among the various risks identified,insufficient technological innovation,technological maturity,carbon emission risk,investment and financing risk,and stranded assets are the core risk factors that have the most significant impact on Jiangsu's energy transition,with their centralities being 7.31,7.12,7.11,7.10,and 7.08 respectively.Among them,insufficient technological innovation and technological maturity are the fundamental cause factors(both with a cause degree of 0.97),and their influence intensity on more than half of the risk factors is greater than 0.20,indicating that the shortcomings in the technological field may significantly amplify other risks through complex chain reactions.Based on the research results,in the process of promoting energy transition,Jiangsu can place technological breakthroughs at the core strategic position,reduce reliance on external technologies,and fundamentally alleviate the systemic risks caused by technological shortcomings.关键词
能源转型/"双碳"目标/风险分析/LDA模型/知识图谱/DEMATEL/江苏省Key words
energy transition/"dual-carbon"goal/risk analysis/latent Dirichlet allocation(LDA)model/knowledge graph/decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL)/Jiangsu province分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
ZHANG Libo,XU Jingdong,ZHANG Huan.."双碳"目标下江苏省能源转型风险识别与评价[J].能源研究与管理,2025,17(4):77-88,12.基金项目
江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目(2022SJZD006) （2022SJZD006）
国家社会科学基金一般项目(24BGL221) （24BGL221）
