皮肤性病诊疗学杂志2025，Vol.32Issue(12)：878-885,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-8468.2025.12.006
2015-2024年广东省中山市梅毒流行趋势分析:基于Joinpoint回归模型
Analysis of syphilis epidemic trends in Zhongshan City,Guangdong Province,from 2015 to 2024 using the joinpoint regression model
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the epidemic trend and population distribution characteris-tics of syphilis in the Zhongshan City of Guangdong Province,so as to provide a scientific basis for formulating targeted prevention and control strategies.Methods Based on the data from the Na-tional Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting System between 2015 and 2024,the reported inci-dence rates of syphilis were stratified and organized by year,stage,gender,and age group.The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the annual percentage change(APC)and trend in-flection points.Results From 2015 to 2024,the reported incidence rate of syphilis decreased from 61.0 per 100,000 population to 56.7 per 100,000 population(AAPC=-2.2%,P=0.581),showing a continuous downward trend.Primary and secondary syphilis decreased by 83.8%and 35.1%,respectively,while latent syphilis increased by 22.0%,contrary to the trend(from 41.4 per 100,000 to 50.5 per 100,000),accounting for as much as 89.1%.The inci-dence rates decreased simultaneously in both genders,and the reported incidence rate among peo-ple aged 60 and above was significantly higher than that in other age groups.Conclusions The prevalence of syphilis in Zhongshan City,Guangdong Province,shows an overall controlled and slightly declining trend,while there is a notable increase in the number of asymptomatic carriers and a high incidence among the elderly aged 60 and above.This indicates the need to improve the three-level prevention and control system,strengthen monitoring and early intervention manage-ment for asymptomatic carriers,and curb hidden transmission.It is essential to focus on women and youth,promote knowledge about sexually transmitted disease prevention and control,and en-hance the risk awareness of key populations.Additionally,it is important to optimize and innovate prevention and control strategies for the elderly,develop accessible popular science materials tai-lored to older adults,strengthen health education,and increase public risk awareness and protec-tive capabilities accordingly.关键词
梅毒/流行特征/报告发病率Key words
syphilis/epidemic characteristics/reported incidence引用本文复制引用
ZHANG Yinan,YUAN Yanyi,HE Weiqing,ZHAO Peizhen,HUANG Shujie,LI Zhuoying,QIU Yongjun..2015-2024年广东省中山市梅毒流行趋势分析:基于Joinpoint回归模型[J].皮肤性病诊疗学杂志,2025,32(12):878-885,8.基金项目
广东省医学科学技术研究基金(B2025372) （B2025372）
