热带气象学报2025，Vol.41Issue(6)：884-896,13.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2025.073
基于人体舒适度的珠江流域高温热浪脆弱人口暴露度研究
Vulnerable Population Exposure to Heatwaves in the Pearl River Basin Based on Comfort Index of Human Body
摘要
Abstract
The Pearl River Basin is a climate-sensitive area where climate warming leads to frequent heatwave disasters.The Comfort Index of Human Body integrates multiple meteorological elements to better assess the impact of heatwaves on human health.Based on the index for defining heatwaves,meteorological observations and five CMIP6 climate model data containing seven SSPs were used to analyse the characteristics of summer heatwaves and exposed vulnerable population in the Pearl River Basin during the historical period(1961-2022)and the 21st century's near-term(2021-2040),mid-term(2041-2060),and end-term(2081-2100).The results show:(1)From 1961 to 2022,the maximum number of summer heatwave days in the Pearl River Basin can be up to 42 days,with the longest duration lasting up to 16 days.The average annual heatwave-affected area is approximately 165,000 km²,with the Pearl River Delta experiencing the most severe heatwaves.(2)In the near,mid,and end terms of the 21st century,compared to the baseline period(1995-2014),the basin-wide average number of summer heatwave days will increase by approximately 7-9 days,11-29 days,and 5-75 days,respectively,with the maximum duration increasing by about 2-4 days,5-10 days,and 2-50 days.The increase is more significant in the high-altitude areas upstream of the Pearl River Basin;the heatwave-affected area continues to expand,and the heatwaves in the late 21st century may influence the entire basin.(3)From 1961 to 2022,the annual average exposed vulnerable population in summer was about 28.6 million person-days,and the maximum in the Pearl River Delta can reach 108 million person-days in 2019.Future vulnerable population exposure will increase significantly,about 6.4-7.8 times,18.5-38.4 times,and 11.9-117.7 times of the baseline period in the near,mid,and end terms,respectively,especially in the Eastern Pearl River Basin.(4)The combined effect of climate and population change is the dominant factor determining the future changes in the exposure of vulnerable populations in the Pearl River Basin,and its contribution rate gradually increases over time.There is an urgent need to strengthen heatwave prevention measures in the future.关键词
高温热浪/人体舒适度/脆弱人口暴露度/贡献率/珠江流域Key words
heatwaves/Comfort Index of Human Body/vulnerable population exposure/contribution rate/Pearl River Basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
LI Yun,SU Buda,HUANG Jinlong,CHEN Sirong,DONG Baohua,JIANG Tong..基于人体舒适度的珠江流域高温热浪脆弱人口暴露度研究[J].热带气象学报,2025,41(6):884-896,13.基金项目
广西重点研发专项(桂科AB22080060) （桂科AB22080060）
江西省气象局重点项目(JX2021Z06、JX2022Z08) （JX2021Z06、JX2022Z08）
中国气象局青年创新团队项目(CMA2024QN15) （CMA2024QN15）
中国气象局气候资源经济转化重点开放实验室开放课题(2025007) （2025007）
南昌国家气候观象台专项(JX2023Z09)共同资助 （JX2023Z09）
