人民黄河2026，Vol.48Issue(1)：67-74,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2026.01.011
极端枯水条件下流域经济社会分层需水分析方法
Methodology for Analyzing Stratified Social-Economic Water Demand in Basin During Extreme Low-Flow Conditions
摘要
Abstract
In order to enhance the capability of water resources security assurance in river basins during extreme low-flow conditions,this pa-per categorized social-economic water demand into three tiers:rigid,resilient,and flexible.Furthermore,it identified the inviolable bottom-line water demand within the rigid demand tier under extreme low-flow conditions.This paper established hierarchical principles and a thresh-old identification methodology for water demand at each tier and quantitatively presented the stratified outcomes for both the social-economic water use in the Yellow River Basin for the year 2022 and the projected social-economic water demand for 2035.The results indicate that the total social-economic water use in the Yellow River Basin in 2022 was 40.941 billion m3,with the bottom-line,rigid,resilient,and flexible water use accounting for 61.73%,76.03%,11.40%,and 12.57%,respectively.It is projected that water demand will increase to 51.089 billion m3 by 2035,with the corresponding proportions being 61.26%,74.12%,16.26%,and 9.62%.Under the inflow scenario of the con-secutive low-flow period from 1991 to 2002,neither the 2022 bottom-line water use nor the 2035 bottom-line water demand could be fully met.This reflects the significant risk of disruption to the bottom-line water demand in the Yellow River Basin during extreme low-flow periods.Therefore,it is imperative to accelerate the construction of inter-basin water transfer projects to enhance the safeguarding capability for the most basic water supply security in the Yellow River Basin under extreme low-flow conditions.关键词
极端枯水/刚性需水/刚弹性需水/弹性需水/底线需水/黄河流域Key words
extreme low-flow/rigid water demand/resilient water demand/flexible water demand/bottom-line water demand/Yellow River Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
SHANG Wenxiu,WANG Yu,ZHENG Xiaokang..极端枯水条件下流域经济社会分层需水分析方法[J].人民黄河,2026,48(1):67-74,8.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202300) （2022YFC3202300）
中原学者获资助项目(254000510001) （254000510001）
