人民黄河2026，Vol.48Issue(1)：75-83,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2026.01.012
基于潜力分析-用水解译的山地城市水资源承载预警
Water Resources Carrying Early Warning of Mountain Cities Based on Potential Analysis and Water Interpretation
摘要
Abstract
Integrating the ideas of territorial spatial system planning and the concept of scientific water management,this study conducted a potential analysis based on local water,trans-boundary water,and reclaimed water as a triple support,and resource,ecology,and security as a triple constraint.It also built a comprehensive water calculation that integrates three dimensions(population,economy and society),three key sectors(living,production and ecology),and three water use growth scenarios(high,medium and low).It constructed an evalua-tion and early warning method for the water carrying capacity of mountain cities based on potential analysis and water interpretation.Empirical studies show that the water carrying capacity and early warning level of mountain cities are closely related to the local water resources endow-ment,trans-boundary water resources condition,water resources allocation capacity,water ecological protection level,water security assur-ance requirements,social-economic development level and water growth pattern,fluctuating up and down over time,and significantly different in spatial.The water carrying capacity of the valley areas along the rivers with high productivity level is high and the early warning level is low.In contrast,hilly and mountainous areas distant from rivers,which are undergoing rapid urbanization,exhibit a low water resources carrying ca-pacity and high early warning levels.Furthermore,the water resources carrying capacity under a high-speed water use growth scenario is signifi-cantly lower than that under medium or low speed scenarios.This situation readily leads to water scare regions exceeding the water resources warning threshold.Based on the principle of"basing four aspects on water resources",it is necessary to scientifically carry out the evaluation and early warning of water resources carrying capacity,orderly promote the territorial spatial planning of"determining demand by water and act-ing by water"and"prioritizing water conservation,balancing spatial distribution",scientifically demonstrate the feasibility of complementary advantages of water resources in adjacent areas and regional allocation,and delimit the joint water carrying area reasonably,and jointly build a water security framework of joint carrying and adjusting,intensive and efficient,and harmonious between people and water.关键词
山地城市/潜力分析/用水解译/水资源承载力/预警Key words
mountain city/potential analysis/water interpretation/water resources carrying capacity/early warning分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
LIU Yali,ZHANG Chi,LU Tao,LIU Fang,ZHANG Zhen,YAN Jingjing,XU Xu,WU Fangfang,CHEN Min,ZHANG Mengqi..基于潜力分析-用水解译的山地城市水资源承载预警[J].人民黄河,2026,48(1):75-83,9.基金项目
重庆市自然科学基金资助项目(CSTB2023NSCQ-MSX0883) （CSTB2023NSCQ-MSX0883）
重庆市建设科技计划项目(城科字[2022]第6-13号) （城科字[2022]第6-13号）
重庆市规划和自然资源局科研项目(KJ-2024029-2) （KJ-2024029-2）
