人口与经济2026，Vol.47Issue(1)：1-15,15.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2026.00.001
少子化指标的构建与应用:中国案例及国际比较
Construction and Application of Shaozihua Indicators:Chinese Cases and International Comparisons
摘要
Abstract
Constructing a scientific measurement indicator for Shaozihua is of great significance for developing an indigenous knowledge system in Chinese demography.Firstly,this paper sorts out and analyzes the current measurement indicators of Shaozihua and their limitations.It is found that existing single indicators have problems such as significant discrepancies in determining the starting time of Shaozihua,unstable stage division and insensitivity to the dynamic changes of Shaozihua.Based on this,the paper constructs a comprehensive indicator reflecting Shaozihua—the"Child Reduction Index(CRI)".This indicator can more fully reflect the essence of Shaozihua:it is not only the result of a decrease in the current birth population,but also the cumulative effect of long-term low fertility behavior.Secondly,by analyzing the current situation of China's Shaozihua using the CRI,the paper finds that the process of Shaozihua in China exhibits distinct three-stage evolution characteristics:from 1992 to 2001,it was the initial Shaozihua stage;from 2002 to 2020,it was the sever Shaozihua stage;and since 2021,it has been the ultra-Shaozihua stage,and this stage is continuing to deepen.At the regional level,the degree of Shaozihua presents a distribution pattern of"higher degree in the east and lower degree in the west".In an international context,China's Shaozihua is characterized by a"latecomer but fast-advancing"trajectory.Finally,this paper puts forward targeted policy implications from four aspects—fostering a scientific cognitive orientation,adopting a full-chain and systematic response,implementing regionally differentiated policies,and establishing a dynamic monitoring and evaluation mechanism—so as to provide a scientific reference for proactively addressing childhood population reduction and promoting the long-term balanced development of the population.关键词
少子化/低生育率/指标构建/少儿缩减指数/国际比较Key words
Shaozihua/low fertility rate/indicator construction/child reduction index/international comparisons分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
TONG Yufen,DU Xu..少子化指标的构建与应用:中国案例及国际比较[J].人口与经济,2026,47(1):1-15,15.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重点项目"从人口发展新常态到人口高质量发展的引领机制与实现路径"(24ARK001). （24ARK001）
