人口与经济2026，Vol.47Issue(1)：46-59,14.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2026.00.004
女性劳动参与率、生育支持政策与生育率
Female Labor Force Participation Rate,Fertility Support Policies and Fertility Rate:An Empirical Study Based on OECD Countries
摘要
Abstract
Simultaneously increasing female labor force participation and fertility rates is one of the key approaches to address a declining birthrate and aging population.Studying and clarifying the relationship between the two as well as the role of fertility support policies in this relationship has important theoretical and practical significance.Based on data from 22 OECD countries from 1980 to 2019,this paper analyzes the impact of female labor force participation on fertility rate,introducing fertility support policies as a moderating variable.The panel Granger causality tests and lagged variables are used to validate the results robustness.The results show that the impact of female labor force participation on fertility rate is U-shaped,with the female labor force participation rate at the inflection point being 57.7%.Before the inflection point,female labor force participation has a negative impact on fertility rate,while after the inflection point,it has a positive impact on fertility rate.Fertility support policies flatten the U-shaped curve of female labor participation rate and fertility rate gentler,that is,fertility support policies can weaken the negative effect of female labor participation rate before the turning point on fertility rate and the positive effect after the turning point.This confirms the differences in the role of fertility support policies at different stages.There are differences in the average marginal effects of different types of fertility support policies.With the increase in family allowances and child care services,the average marginal effect of women's labor participation rate on the total fertility rate has gradually increased,while maternal paid leave has shown the opposite trend.This provides important inspirations and references for China to cope with the low birth rate and aging population as well as achieve high-quality population development.关键词
女性劳动参与率/总和生育率/生育支持政策/工作—家庭平衡/少子化Key words
female labor force participation rate/total fertility rate/fertility support policies/work-family balance/declining birthrate分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
WANG Penggang,HAN Yimiao,MA Jinhui..女性劳动参与率、生育支持政策与生育率[J].人口与经济,2026,47(1):46-59,14.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重点项目"人口老龄化对生育率的影响研究"(22ARK003). （22ARK003）
