人口与经济2026，Vol.47Issue(1)：60-73,14.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2026.00.005
婚姻匹配、性别观念与离婚风险
Marriage Matching,Gender Concepts and Divorce Risk:An Analysis Based on CFPS Data
摘要
Abstract
Taking"Marriage Heterogeneity Hypothesis"as the premise and focusing on parental and spousal educational matching,this paper empirically examines the impact of marriage matching on divorce risk and its underlying mechanisms by using the data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)from 2010 to 2022.The empirical results demonstrate that both spousal and parental educational matching exert statistically significant effects on divorce risks,with family background matching effects persisting in the divorce risk mechanism.During the initial phase of China's reform and opening-up,medium-education homogeneous marriages(couples both with secondary education)exhibited higher divorce risks.In contrast,the deepening reform period saw significantly lower divorce risks among educationally-homogeneous couples,with tertiary-education homogeneous marriages demonstrating the highest stability.Conversely,parental low-education homogeneous marriages(parents both with minimal schooling)was associated with elevated divorce risks.Marriages characterized by female-hypergamous educational matching(wives more educated than husbands)exhibit significantly higher divorce risks.Similarly,parental marriage with male-hypergamous educational matching(fathers more educated than mothers)are associated with elevated divorce risks.However,as China-style modernization progresses,the disparity in divorce risks between heterogeneous and homogeneous marriages has narrowed.Gender concepts exhibit a significant mediating effect in the relationship between spousal educational matching and divorce risks.To promote marital harmony and stability,policymakers should advocate for open-minded attitudes toward marriage matching and the concept of gender equality,and pay attention to the construction of family education and family traditions.关键词
离婚风险/婚姻匹配/婚姻稳定性/婚姻异质性假说/性别观念Key words
divorce risk/marriage matching/marital stability/marriage heterogeneity hypothesis/gender concepts分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
ZHANG Bo,DING Jinhong..婚姻匹配、性别观念与离婚风险[J].人口与经济,2026,47(1):60-73,14.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目"离婚冷静期婚姻关系修复的社会干预机制研究"(24BSH092). （24BSH092）
