人口与经济2026，Vol.47Issue(1)：119-135,17.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2026.00.009
人口老龄化、政策响应与社会养老保障承载力
Population Aging,Policy Responses,and Carrying Capacity of Social Old-age Security Systems
摘要
Abstract
Under the pressure of population aging,how to balance growing elderly care demands with limited system supply capacity and promote efficient and stable development of social old-age security systems has become a critical challenge.This paper introduces the concept of carrying capacity of social old-age security systems and,based on the Pressure-State-Response(PSR)Theory,constructs a comprehensive analytical framework of"population pressure quantification-dynamic capacity assessment-policy effect simulation"to systematically address three key questions:what is the current carrying capacity,what will happen in the future,and how to optimize and improve it.Findings reveal that:1)From 2011 to 2022,China's social old-age security carrying capacity exhibited an overall fluctuating upward trend during the sample period,with economic carrying capacity maintaining steady growth and service carrying capacity achieving leapfrog development.However,the surge in elderly population has led to a substantial increase in overloaded regions.2)Numerical simulation results indicate that China's social old-age security carrying capacity will contract by 8.84%-20.12%from 2023 to 2035,with economic carrying capacity declining by 10.63%-20.40%and service carrying capacity dropping by 30.00%-37.10%,intensifying resource allocation imbalances.3)Policy effect evaluation reveals that:First,the delayed retirement policy significantly enhances carrying capacity by 21.0%-31.1%through buffering effects,while the individual pension policy exerts amplification effects of 3.8%-18.1%,yet neither single policy can achieve system equilibrium;Second,the"fertility support-pension adjustment-retirement flexibility"policy coordination framework performs optimally,boosting carrying capacity by 62.54%-102.68%,with the combination of enhanced pension schemes and highly flexible retirement under high-fertility scenarios proving most effective;Finally,economic carrying capacity responds sensitively to policy combinations,while service dimension improvements remain limited,necessitating accelerated development of the social elderly care service system.关键词
人口老龄化/社会养老保障承载力/延迟退休/个人养老金/政策协同Key words
population aging/carrying capacity of social old-age security systems/delayed retirement/individual pension/policy coordination分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
LI Fang,LIU Danchen,SHEN Suyan..人口老龄化、政策响应与社会养老保障承载力[J].人口与经济,2026,47(1):119-135,17.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目"人口结构变化下社会养老保障承载力研究:现状评估、趋势预测及提升策略"(72474106) （72474106）
国家自然科学基金面上项目"基于长三角城市群的政策环境适宜性对流动人口居留质量的影响研究:理论机理、效应识别与策略优化"(72374106) （72374106）
江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划"人口结构变化下社会养老保障承载力研究"(KYCX24_1007). （KYCX24_1007）
