热带气象学报2025，Vol.41Issue(6)：783-796,14.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2025.064
风电爬坡事件的识别与评估分析——以山西省为例
Identification and Evaluation Analysis of Wind Power Ramp Events—A Case Study of Shanxi Province
摘要
Abstract
Based on observation and forecast data of 15-min wind power output of all wind farms in Shanxi Province from March 2022 to March 2023,this study analyzed the errors of"power prediction curves"in the provincial wind power trading market.The forecasting effectiveness of wind power ramp events was evaluated by developing identification,matching,and scoring methods.The ERA5 reanalysis data were used to analyze the weather background and evolution of large-scale wind power ramp-up events.The results are shown as follows:(1)For all seasons,the periods around 08:00(Beijing Time,same below)and 20:00 are the two daily peaks of forecast error.Meanwhile,the error dispersion for the two periods is relatively large,with a maximum value of up to 4 000 MW.(2)The occurrence frequency for weak ramp events is significantly higher than strong ramp events.The forecasting skill score for weak ramp events is 0.23,which is higher than strong ramp events(0.05).(3)Wind power ramp events mainly occur in winter and spring.The periods around 8:00 and 19:00 each day are the concentrated occurrence times for ramp-down and ramp-up events,respectively.Ramp-up events mainly occur from afternoon to the first half of the night,while ramp-down events are dominant from the second half of the night to the next morning.(4)When Shanxi Province is located behind a high surface pressure or in front of an upper-air trough,the intensification of the surface high pressure or the establishment of a pre-trough low-level jet will lead to province-wide wind power ramp-up events.关键词
风电爬坡/风电功率/预报技能得分/天气学分析Key words
wind power ramp/wind power/forecasting skill score/synoptic analysis分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
LI Chen,HAN Chao,JIN Chenxi,LEI Ting..风电爬坡事件的识别与评估分析——以山西省为例[J].热带气象学报,2025,41(6):783-796,14.基金项目
中国气象局科技项目(CMAJBGS202519)资助 （CMAJBGS202519）
