西北水电Issue(6)：148-153,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-2610.2025.06.023
气候变化下东南非赞比亚水光互补保障电力供应研究
Research on Hydro-PV Complementation for Ensuring Power Supply in Zambia,Southeast Africa,Under Climate Change
摘要
Abstract
To analyze the role of hydro-PV complementation in addressing the challenge of power supply security caused by prolonged drought in countries dominated by hydropower in their power mix,this study takes Zambia in Southeast Africa as the research subject and selects four built major regulated hydropower stations in the country.Based on its energy resources and the operational characteristics of the hydropower stations,this paper analyzes the operational performance of the hydropower stations under drought impact.Moreover,sim-ulation calculation of hydro-PV complementation is carried out through power system production simulation,and the role of hydro-PV complementation in ensuring Zambia's power supply is demonstrated.The results show that the total installed capacity of the four hydro-power stations reaches 2 940 MW,which can be paired with a photovoltaic(PV)capacity of approximately 4520 MW,corresponding to a hydro-PV configuration ratio of about 1.5∶1.Hydro-PV complementation can significantly enhance the power supply capacity of hy-dropower stations in dry years and dry seasons,effectively smooth out PV output fluctuations and increase the utilization hours of transmis-sion corridors.It can serve as an important approach for Zambia to rapidly improve its power supply in the near term.The research find-ings can provide a reference for similar countries to promote energy structure transformation and enhance power supply security capacity.关键词
水光互补/赞比亚/极端干旱/电力供应保障Key words
Hydro-PV Complementation/Zambia/Extreme Drought/Power Supply Security分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
LI Yunlong,HU Xiaoshan,DU Zhishui,DOU Yulin..气候变化下东南非赞比亚水光互补保障电力供应研究[J].西北水电,2025,(6):148-153,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52379023) （52379023）
