右江医学2025，Vol.53Issue(12)：1119-1125,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1003-1383.2025.12.009
2019-2024年融水苗族自治县手足口病流行特征分析及发病趋势预测
Analysis of epidemiological characteristics and prediction of hand,foot and mouth disease in Rongshui Miao Autonomous County from 2019 to 2024
摘要
Abstract
Objective To explore the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trends of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in Rongshui Miao Autonomous County from 2019 to 2024,so as to provide reference for the prevention and control of HFMD in the local area.Methods The incidence data of HFMD in Rongshui Miao Autonomous County from 2019 to 2024 were collected,and descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the group characteristics,temporal distribution pattern and spatial distribution of HFMD in Rongshui Miao Autonomous County,and ARIMA model was constructed by R 4.4.3 software to predict the trend of the incidence of HFMD in 2025.Results A total of 4740 HFMD cases were reported in Rongshui Miao Autonomous County from 2019 to 2024,with an average annual incidence rate of 150.81/100 000.The incidence of the disease was mainly concentrated in children under 5 years old(83.42％),with a male-to-female ratio of 1.39:1.The peak of the incidence of the disease was from April to July and September to Novem-ber,and the top three districts of the region with the average annual incidence rate of HFMD were Rongshui Town,Xiangfen Town and Sanfang Town.The optimal model ARIMA(0,0,2)(0,0,0)12 was used to predict that the incidence trend was rel-atively stable in 2025.Conclusion The prevalence of HFMD in Rongshui Miao Autonomous County from 2019 to 2024 has obvious temporal,spatial,and population distribution characteristics.It is recommended to increase the public participation and coverage of vaccination.关键词
手足口病/流行特征/发病趋势预测Key words
hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)/epidemic characteristics/incidence trend prediction分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
YANG Jiangyan,LI Juan,SUN Mengmeng,CAO Shengkang,LI Xiangzhi..2019-2024年融水苗族自治县手足口病流行特征分析及发病趋势预测[J].右江医学,2025,53(12):1119-1125,7.基金项目
柳州市科技计划项目(2022CAC0229) （2022CAC0229）
浙江省疾病预防控制科技计划项目(2025JK137) （2025JK137）
