岩土工程学报2026，Vol.48Issue(1)：1-14,14.DOI:10.11779/CJGE20250999
地质灾害链风险防控
Coping with risks of geological hazard chains
摘要
Abstract
Geological hazard chains,characterized by multi-hazard transformations,cascading effects,and spatiotemporal amplification,pose severe threats to societal and infrastructural safety.This study establishes a technical framework spanning"mechanism studies-numerical simulation-risk assessment-intelligent prevention".Using the Wenchuan earthquake hazard chains as an illustrative case,we analyze the triggers,types,multi-decade spatiotemporal evolution of hazard chains.The analysis underscores the need to integrate the full lifecycle of hazard chains into engineering design.In numerical simulation,the EDDA platform enables modeling of the complete"rainfall-landslide-debris flow-flood"cascade in rain-induced landslides,and the GMFA model addresses thermo-hydro-mechanical coupling and hazard transition in glacial landslide chains.These tools collectively support the simulation of the entire hazard-chain process,from initiation and movement to erosion-deposition and hazard transformation.In risk assessment,a five-phase framework is proposed to quantify the interactions and amplification effects in hazard chains.Two rapid-assessment tools were developed:the PoLA system for regional quantitative risk assessment of rainfall-induced landslides,and the QuakeSlide system for real-time risk forecasts of global earthquake-induced landslides.Finally,we propose a risk-informed engineering design approach,advocate the concept of hazard chain disruption based on proactive defense,and explore a dynamic emergency risk assessment protocol powered by digital twin technology.These advancements support risk mitigation,emergency management and engineering safety.关键词
地质灾害链/风险防控/降雨滑坡/地震滑坡/冰川滑坡/数字孪生Key words
geological hazard chains/risk analysis/rainfall-induced landslide/earthquake-induced landslide/glacial landslide/digital twin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
ZHANG Limin..地质灾害链风险防控[J].岩土工程学报,2026,48(1):1-14,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金委员会及香港研究资助局联合科研资助基金项目(N_HKUST620/20,42061160480) （N_HKUST620/20,42061160480）
香港研究资助局项目(T22-606/23-R,516210122,16206923) （T22-606/23-R,516210122,16206923）
国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3001002)This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China/RGC Joint Research Scheme(N_HKUST620/20,42061160480),Research Grants Council(T22-606/23-R,516210122,16206923)and National Key Research and Development Program(2021YFC3001002) （2021YFC3001002）
