中国癌症杂志2025，Vol.35Issue(12)：1091-1098,8.DOI:10.19401/j.cnki.1007-3639.2025.12.001
中国年轻女性乳腺癌发病、死亡近30年的变迁情况及趋势研究
A study of 30-year trends in incidence and mortality risks of breast cancer among young women in China
摘要
Abstract
Background and purpose:The incidence and mortality rates of breast cancer among young women are relatively low compared to other age groups,but the health risks and societal burden are significant.Methods:Data on the incidence and mortality of female breast cancer in China from 1992 to 2021 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database,stratified by age groups(15-39 years and other age groups).The Joinpoint regression model was employed to calculate the annual percent change(APC)and average annual percent change(AAPC)to compare trend differences between the 15-39-year age group and other age groups.Additionally,an age-period-cohort model was utilized to estimate the age,period,and birth cohort effects on incidence and mortality risks.Results:From 1992 to 2021,compared with other age groups,the age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)and age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR)of female breast cancer in the 15-39-year age group remained at relatively low levels.The ASIR increased at an AAPC of 2.1%,which was lower than that observed in the 40-54-year(2.5%)and the 55-69-year(2.8%)age groups,but slightly higher than that in the≥70-year age group(2.0%).Meanwhile,the ASMR decreased at an AAPC of 1.0%,a greater decline compared with the 40-54-year age group(0.6%)and the≥70-year age group(0.2%).Over time,the incidence risk of breast cancer among young women showed an upward trend,while the mortality risk exhibited an initial decline(with the lowest point observed in 2012-2016)followed by a rebound.The birth cohort effect indicated an increasing trend in incidence risk and a decreasing trend in mortality risk.Conclusion:Over the past three decades,the risk of breast cancer incidence among young women in China has increased,while the mortality risk has decreased.The observed cohort and period effects suggest that the reduction in disease burden is attributable to effective treatment.关键词
年轻女性/乳腺癌/发病率/死亡率/年龄-时期-队列模型Key words
Young women/Breast cancer/Incidence rate/Mortality rate/Age-Period-Cohort model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
DING Lingling,ZHENG Ying,MO Miao..中国年轻女性乳腺癌发病、死亡近30年的变迁情况及趋势研究[J].中国癌症杂志,2025,35(12):1091-1098,8.基金项目
上海申康"医疗质量安全与医疗服务模式创新"项目(SHDC12024612). Project"Medical Quality and Safety and Innovation in Medical Service Models"by Shanghai Shen Kang(SHDC12024612). （SHDC12024612）
